Re: TD / Bonnie alittle take from Jake
Posted by
Jake on 7/24/2010, 11:02 am
Jack Ruby,
Thanks for taking the time to comment and being thorough. Points 1 and 2 are very fair.
As to point 3, thought Bonnie would shear out and loss the swirl after existing florida and making it an openwave and NHC dropping adv. But, since the center is still trackable thought I would give it a call for what it's worth.
Note: this was an experimental call and stated last weekend. As the increased convection across the eastern carib / sw atlantic would interact with an eastern atlantic wave with a rather strong 850-700mb vortex and large cyclonic surface rotation. You are totally correct TC formation was premature across DR/PR. The intense and relaentless ULL although never moved out, my call for TC formation came from the expection of a narrow upper high building over the system which finally did across the Bahamas, but was short lived.
Thankfully for South florida and the central gulf coast the shear didn't relax and an upper high didn't form over the cyclone early on; otherwise Bonnie would've became a rather powerful cyclone approaching S.Fl and the central gulf coast. |
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