Re: Model Game
Posted by
Gianmarc on 8/29/2010, 11:52 am
I watched that video already and I think Derek did a great job with it. He repeatedly says throughout the clip that NY is not likely to feel any direct effects from Earl. There is ALWAYS "a chance." There's a chance that I could decide to go streaking through my neighborhood today, too. Probably not going to happen, but hey, if I get enough tequila in me this afternoon, I can't make any promises.
I understand that some here feel compelled to offer words of "caution" every time someone agrees with models that do not portend doomsday. But at the same time I think it is critically important that we distinguish between "chance" and "probability." I believe that it is more to our benefit to acknowledge the unlikelihood of landfall in a major metro area when all models tell us as much. That way, when models are telling us otherwise and conditions are coming together to bring about a nightmare, we will know it's for real because we will see "probability" where before we only saw "chance." |
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BobbiStorm,
8/29/2010, 10:48 am Post A Reply
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