Re: Thursday 1/27 System
Posted by Fred on 1/26/2011, 4:18 pm
Im loving this winter and still have 2 more months left !!!!!!



Nws Upton NY DISCO 3:44pm


BETWEEN 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN ACROSS MOST OF THE WARNING
AREA...WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NY/NJ METRO...NORTHERN HALF OF
LI AND SOUTHERN CONN. THIS FIRST HIT OF SNOW WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT OF ATLANTIC/GULF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW. POSSIBLE CAUSE FOR POOR MODEL HANDLING OF THIS
WAS DUE TO PROLIFIC CONVECTION OVER THE GULF INTERRUPTING MODEL
HANDLING OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED.

A BRIEF RESPITE OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/RAIN (FZRA
INTERIOR) CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA IN WAKE OF THIS WAA FORCING. BUT
ALREADY PRECIP IS BEGINNING TO FILL IN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND
SOUTHERN NJ AHEAD OF AN STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WITH VERY
HEAVY AND CONVECTIVE PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS VIRGINIA/MD ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG PVA/HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF UPPER LOW.

SO SECOND HALF OF STORM ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING INTO FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG UPPER JET AND A
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW PIVOTING NE FROM CAROLINA TO SE OF LI BY AROUND
06Z TONIGHT...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT
TRACKS ENE FROM OFF THE DELMARVA COAST TO NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK
DURING THIS TIME.

THE COMBINATION OF STRONG PVA/HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THIS UPPER ENERGY AND GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE
BEING WRAPPED BACK BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO RAPIDLY
DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN 5 PM AND 8 PM ACROSS THE WARNING AREA.
ANY MIXED PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO THE SNOW IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG VERTICAL MOTION.

HEAVY SNOW BANDING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNING AREA DUE TO THE
STRONG DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. COMBINED WITH AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY NOSING IN ALOFT...WILL ADD IN THE MENTION OF THUNDERSNOW
THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR LIKELY THIS
EVENING INTO FIRST HALF OF OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. FAR
NW ZONES WILL BE ON NW PERIPHERY...SO LOOKING FOR A SHORTER PERIOD
OF MODERATE SNOW.

HEAVY SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS NE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
INTO THE OPEN WATERS.

NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND TRACKS
JUST SE OF THE REGION. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN LI AND
SE CONN. WILL MENTION NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS...BUT DUE TO THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOWFALL WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED. THEREFORE WILL NOT UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS.

WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES CONTINUE A IS. A GENERAL 8 TO 13
INCHES ACROSS THE WARNING AREA...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN LI AND SOUTHERN CONN. 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA ACROSS FAR NW INTERIOR...BUT BECAUSE THIS WILL BE OVER
MORE THAN A 12 HR PERIOD WITH A BREAK IN BETWEEN...NOT PLANNING TO
UPGRADE TO WARNING AT THIS TIME.-- End Changed Discussion --

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Thursday 1/27 System - JAC, 1/24/2011, 7:32 am
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