Re: Message from the Hopi Nation about Japan, Amazing and Historic
Posted by
Tim_NC on 3/23/2011, 9:58 pm
I've long been familiar with black swan events (events which the majority fail to predict) but don't know what "critical thinking modeling" is. In fact, I don't see how they fit in the same sentence.
Critical thinking is abstract; modeling is mathematical. A decade ago, my critical thinking suggested a high likelihood of the price of gold soaring followed by the price of housing collapsing. I dutifully warned friends and family; all of whom of course rejected my "black swan thinking" as utter fantasy.
Yet even with my foresight, I too suffered a black swan event; the stratospheric rise in the value of the South African currency - which combined with a worker's strike here and a mine disaster there - savaged my large investment in South African gold mines.
You'll get no argument from me about the existence or even likelihood of black swans striking each and every one of us at one time or another.
But I'm also aware the limits of black swans. I will never see a dead family member return to life; I will never see an alien space ship land in front of my apartment; and I will never see a pig fly.
That people enjoy pseudo-science, bronze-age mythology, and other delusions is, to me, perfectly understandable. Heck, I tried cocaine a long time ago and fully understand why it's a popular drug - because it makes one FEEL GOOD.
But science isn't about feeling good; science is the foundation of reality - for better or for worse. Oh if I only had a dollar for everyone who actually believed the supermoon would bring any sort of havoc on our planet! If I had even a penny for every irrational video, blog and board post on the net...I'd be rich!
I agree it's important to be aware of black swans; but it's also important to know where they may or may not reside.
Tim in NC
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