Moderate chance for Tornadoes
Posted by JAC on 3/31/2011, 9:20 am





URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
  TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 80
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  600 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011
 
  THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
  TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
 
         LARGE PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
         COASTAL WATERS
 
  EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 600 AM UNTIL
  100 PM EDT.
 
  TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
  GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
  AREAS.
 
  THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
  MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF OCALA
  FLORIDA TO 55 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA.
  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
  OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
 
  REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
  TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
  AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
  THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
  AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
 
  DISCUSSION...STORMS OVER NERN GULF JUST OFF FL COAST HAVE
  INTENSIFIED WITH THE APP ROCH OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH GULF STATES AND
  DEEPENING SURFACE LOW.  SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOW SUPPORTIVE OF
  SUPERCELLS AND TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
  APPROACHING 60-70KT MID LEVEL JET.  SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED
  SUPERCELLS SHOULD CROSS NRN FL PENINSULA THIS MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY
  WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.  ACTIVITY WILL WORK
  SEWD TOWARD SRN HALF OF PENINSULA DURING THE MORNING.
 
  AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
  SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
  WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
  550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
 
 
  ...HALES

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Moderate Low


Note:  See the experimental Public Watch (SEL) product with explicit hazard information section below. The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

  SEL0
 
  URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
  TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 80
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  600 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011
 
  THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
  TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
 
         LARGE PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
         COASTAL WATERS
 
  EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 600 AM UNTIL
  100 PM EDT.
 
  SEVERAL TORNADOES
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
  ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER
 
  THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
  MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF OCALA
  FLORIDA TO 55 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA.
  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
  OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
 
  REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
  TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
  AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
  THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
  AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
 
  DISCUSSION...STORMS OVER NERN GULF JUST OFF FL COAST HAVE
  INTENSIFIED WITH THE APP ROCH OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH GULF STATES AND
  DEEPENING SURFACE LOW.  SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOW SUPPORTIVE OF
  SUPERCELLS AND TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
  APPROACHING 60-70KT MID LEVEL JET.  SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED
  SUPERCELLS SHOULD CROSS NRN FL PENINSULA THIS MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY
  WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.  ACTIVITY WILL WORK
  SEWD TOWARD SRN HALF OF PENINSULA DURING THE MORNING.
 
  AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
  SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
  WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
  550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
 
 
  ...HALES

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Moderate Low


  SEL0
 
  URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
  TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 80
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  600 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011
 
  THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
  TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
 
         LARGE PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
         COASTAL WATERS
 
  EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 600 AM UNTIL
  100 PM EDT.
 
  TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
  GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
  AREAS.
 
  THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
  MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF OCALA
  FLORIDA TO 55 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA.
  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
  OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
 
  REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
  TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
  AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
  THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
  AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
 
  DISCUSSION...STORMS OVER NERN GULF JUST OFF FL COAST HAVE
  INTENSIFIED WITH THE APP ROCH OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH GULF STATES AND
  DEEPENING SURFACE LOW.  SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOW SUPPORTIVE OF
  SUPERCELLS AND TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
  APPROACHING 60-70KT MID LEVEL JET.  SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED
  SUPERCELLS SHOULD CROSS NRN FL PENINSULA THIS MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY
  WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.  ACTIVITY WILL WORK
  SEWD TOWARD SRN HALF OF PENINSULA DURING THE MORNING.
 
  AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
  SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
  WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
  550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
 
 
  ...HALES

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Moderate Low


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

  WOUS64 KWNS 310957
  WOU0
 
  BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
  TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 80
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  600 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2011
 
  TORNADO WATCH 80 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EDT FOR THE
   FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
 
  FLC009-015-017-027-035-043-049-051-053-055-057-061-069-071-075-
  081-083-085-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-111-115-117-119-127-
  311700-
  /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0080.110331T1000Z-110331T1700Z/
 
  FL
  .    FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
 
  BREVARD              CHARLOTTE           CITRUS              
  DESOTO               FLAGLER             GLADES              
  HARDEE               HENDRY              HERNANDO            
  HIGHLANDS            HILLSBOROUGH        INDIAN RIVER        
  LAKE                 LEE                 LEVY                
  MANATEE              MARION              MARTIN              
  OKEECHOBEE           ORANGE              OSCEOLA            
  PALM BEACH           PASCO               PINELLAS            
  POLK                 PUTNAM              SARASOTA            
  SEMINOLE             ST. LUCIE           SUMTER              
  VOLUSIA              
 
 
  AMZ550-552-555-610-650-GMZ830-850-853-856-311700-
  /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0080.110331T1000Z-110331T1700Z/
 
  CW
 
  .    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
 
  FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM
 
  VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM
 
  SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM
 
  LAKE OKEECHOBEE
 
  COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
 
  TAMPA BAY WATERS
 
  COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM
 
  COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM
 
  COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM
 
  ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...MFL...JAX...
 
 
 

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Moderate Low


Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

  SAW0
  WW 80 TORNADO FL CW 311000Z - 311700Z
  AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
  20NE OCF/OCALA FL/ - 55WSW PBI/WEST PALM BEACH FL/
  ..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /46W OMN - 48NW MIA/
  HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
  MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
 
  LAT...LON 29378073 26377969 26378212 29378323
 
  THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA.  FOR A
  COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
  FOR WOU0.
 

Watch 80 Status Report Messages:

STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 80

VALID 311220Z - 311340Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..JEWELL..03/31/11

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...MFL...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WT 80

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

FLC009-015-017-027-035-043-049-051-053-055-057-061-069-071-075-
081-083-085-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-111-115-117-119-127-
311340-

FL
.    FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BREVARD       CHARLOTTE   CITRUS      
DESOTO       FLAGLER   GLADES      
HARDEE       HENDRY   HERNANDO      
HIGHLANDS      HILLSBOROUGH  INDIAN RIVER      
LAKE       LEE   LEVY      
MANATEE       MARION   MARTIN      
OKEECHOBEE      ORANGE   OSCEOLA      
PALM BEACH      PASCO   PINELLAS      
POLK       PUTNAM   ST. LUCIE      
SARASOTA      SEMINOLE   SUMTER      
VOLUSIA      
$$


AMZ550-552-555-610-650-GMZ830-850-853-856-311340-

CW

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM

VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM

SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM

LAKE OKEECHOBEE

COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM

TAMPA BAY WATERS

COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$

STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 80

VALID 311140Z - 311240Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..JEWELL..03/31/11

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...MFL...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WT 80

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

FLC009-015-017-027-035-043-049-051-053-055-057-061-069-071-075-
081-083-085-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-111-115-117-119-127-
311240-

FL
.    FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BREVARD       CHARLOTTE   CITRUS      
DESOTO       FLAGLER   GLADES      
HARDEE       HENDRY   HERNANDO      
HIGHLANDS      HILLSBOROUGH  INDIAN RIVER      
LAKE       LEE   LEVY      
MANATEE       MARION   MARTIN      
OKEECHOBEE      ORANGE   OSCEOLA      
PALM BEACH      PASCO   PINELLAS      
POLK       PUTNAM   ST. LUCIE      
SARASOTA      SEMINOLE   SUMTER      
VOLUSIA      
$$


AMZ550-552-555-610-650-GMZ830-850-853-856-311240-

CW

.    ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM

VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM

SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM

LAKE OKEECHOBEE

COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM

TAMPA BAY WATERS

COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM

$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$


Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Moderate Low


Please visit the National Weather Service Interactive Weather Information Network (IWIN) for more information on the warnings.

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Moderate Low


Note:  Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (50%)


Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (20%)


Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (60%)


Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (30%)


Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (40%)


Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Low (20%)


Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (80%)



For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.

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Storm Cells coming in from the Gulf have spawned hurricane force winds - ssherripat, 3/31/2011, 9:04 am
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