Not forecast as a TC at the moment
Posted by
JAC on 6/22/2011, 7:16 am
Looking a little more in depth at the models.
FIM showing this as a ULL and GFS is forecasting high shear.
Also, GFS is showing a 325K PV anomaly.
So, convection could start out as a MCS coming off the Yucatan moving into the BOC.
Need to watch if hot-towers fire up and force the circulation to the surface and expand the PV column due to latent heating and raising the tropopause.
It happened here a couple times last year with multiple hot-towers firing causing RI.
Stay tuned.
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109
In this thread:
Another Shot for the BOC? -
JAC,
6/22/2011, 7:04 am- 12Z GFS - Poof - JAC, 6/24/2011, 2:59 pm
- Current Steering Thinking - JAC, 6/24/2011, 8:19 am
- FIM - JAC, 6/24/2011, 8:22 am
- Re: Another Shot for the BOC? - ArgosyTn, 6/23/2011, 4:52 pm
- 12Z Euro - JAC, 6/23/2011, 4:36 pm
- Wave is firing nicely in high shear south of Hispaniola - JAC, 6/23/2011, 4:19 pm
- Houston NWS Discussion - JAC, 6/23/2011, 8:33 am
- 55 to 60 K-ft cell already firing with heavy rain-rate - JAC, 6/23/2011, 8:14 am
- 00Z CMC goes Deep Warm-Core - JAC, 6/23/2011, 5:23 am
- Re: Another Shot for the BOC? - ricksterpr, 6/22/2011, 3:25 pm
- Re: Another Shot for the BOC? - tracker, 6/22/2011, 1:30 pm
- TC Formation Probability - JAC, 6/22/2011, 10:08 am
- MJO Peaking Next Week - JAC, 6/22/2011, 8:44 am
- 00Z GFS has borderline warm-core - JAC, 6/22/2011, 8:14 am
- Not forecast as a TC at the moment - JAC, 6/22/2011, 7:16 am
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