GFS still forecasting heavy shear with a broad LLC
Posted by JAC on 6/23/2011, 5:34 am
One way or the other, theta-e forecast is showing heavy juice coming into the area.

IMHO this all depends on how the convection does over the Yucatan and the timing of the wave.

If the wave pretty much passes over the Yucatan in the late afternoon, there will be a lot of instability to fire heavy convection.

That convection could get out in the water and help to push shear out of the water.

If the wave crosses the Yucatan in the morning, it will be a different story.

Convection will most likely be weak and this could mean a weak system in the BOC.









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Another Shot for the BOC? - JAC, 6/22/2011, 7:04 am
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