Re: P10L becomes 91L in mid-Atlantic
Posted by LawKat on 7/29/2011, 8:54 am
The worry for everyone, from the Caribbean to the East Coast to the Gulf of Mexico, should be whether a very strong high pressure system stays in place out in the Atlantic, much like has been the case since late June.

If 91L shakes the dust and there is no appreciable shear like intensity models seems to suggest, we're going to have a strong Cat 3, low end Cat 4 barreling towards someone in about a week to 10 days.  The modeling data indicates a possible 125 mph Cat 3 storm in 7 days.

This bears watching.  The Caribbean and U.S. haven't been threatened by a major hurricane since Karl last year (Mexico), or Omar in 2008(Caribbean), or Wilma in 2005 (U.S.).  So, besides Karl whacking the southern reaches of the Bay of Campeche, the rest of the Atlantic is out of practice for having to monitor a major coming at them for the past three seasons.

I am concerned at what this season is showing us so far.  The law of statistics says that if you throw enough darts at the dartboard, you eventually hit the bullseye.  There have been a LOT of darts thrown since 2005, and 2011 seems to have a handful of darts itself.
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P10L becomes 91L in mid-Atlantic - JAC, 7/29/2011, 7:12 am
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