Per Dr Jeff Masters......
Posted by
Shalista on 7/29/2011, 1:40 pm
Forecast for 91L Low to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots is predicted along 91L's path over the coming three days, which should allow the storm to steadily organize, assuming it can shut out any incursions of dry air that might intrude. The latest 06Z run of the GFS model does show 91L developing into a tropical storm by Monday, but the other three most reliable models for forecasting formation of a tropical storm--the ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET models--show little or no development of 91L in their latest runs. On Monday, when most of the models predict that squalls of rain from 91L will begin affecting the Lesser Antilles, wind shear is expected to rise to the moderate or high range, which should act to interfere with development. The latest runs of the GFDL and HWRF models show 91L developing into a hurricane by Monday, but these models are not to be trusted for systems that have not developed into a tropical depression yet. The long-range path of 91L could take it through the Caribbean or towards the U.S. East Coast; it is too early to know with path might be more probable. NHC is giving a 30% chance that 91L will develop into a tropical depression by Sunday morning.
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In this thread:
P10L becomes 91L in mid-Atlantic -
JAC,
7/29/2011, 7:12 am- Water Vapor - ricksterpr, 7/29/2011, 9:20 pm
- Re: P10L becomes 91L in mid-Atlantic - HURRICANEHIRAM, 7/29/2011, 3:29 pm
- STR Outlook - JAC, 7/29/2011, 2:52 pm
- Recon Sunday & Monday - JAC, 7/29/2011, 2:37 pm
- Re: P10L becomes 91L in mid-Atlantic - Shalista, 7/29/2011, 12:45 pm
- The one saving grace for the US..... - beachman80, 7/29/2011, 11:01 am
- Re: P10L becomes 91L in mid-Atlantic - Shalista, 7/29/2011, 10:04 am
- Re: P10L becomes 91L in mid-Atlantic - LawKat, 7/29/2011, 8:54 am
- Got Orange - JAC, 7/29/2011, 8:37 am
- Quake Risk Discussion - JAC, 7/29/2011, 8:33 am
- Re: P10L becomes 91L in mid-Atlantic - ricksterpr, 7/29/2011, 7:49 am
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