Re: La Nina or El Nino.... which is it?
Posted by Conclue on 9/13/2011, 2:05 pm
Your tax money hard at work? yeah it is to alert you when you have life threatening weather coming at you. First and foremost the ammount of money allocated to this field from a federal level is sqaut. Kinda like how restaurant managers make more than those teaching our youth. The science is there in the models, the problem is if you want to run a model as accurately as humanly possible at this time it would take nearly a week to run a 3 day forecast. Talk your crap to the software and computer engineers to bring that spect of technology up to par.

ENSO is a very real phenomena, the problem is most laymen like yourself don't truely understand the entire functions of the atmosphere as a global system thus since you don't understand it, it's easy for you to say it's a joke.

ENSO is not fully understood but we know enough about it now in the past 20 years that future analysis and observations can make long range forecasting far better than it is today.For instance for Synoptic 2 Met I busted my a--- to do a paper for my professor in which both he and the TA agreed that it was along the lines of grad level type research in a 2000 word paper. I choose to analyze DJF of 2010-11 and compare it to a La Nina mean base state from which so many refer to as what should happen during a "nina winter in TX" or a "nino summer in the NE"

My results showed that no particular ENSO phase will be exactly the same as the other as there are other atmospheric teleconnections (Such as the AO, PNA, and at times the NAO (usually a result of other set ups) that can severely alter the large scale mean synoptic flow thereby altering any particular season to deviate from some given norm. This last winter was not typical by any means for a "seasonal Nina" cycle with maybe the expected lack of rainfall in FL. amongst other small details/anomalies.

This is particuarly the part of the field I'm most intrigued by because ENSO is such a dominate force in atmospheric mean circulatiory response that if we can understand how numerous teleconnections work with (or against for that matter) each other, we can better predict how not only seasl forecasts are done, but how active TC seasons may be in any given basin. ENSO is extermely sensitive to warming ocean temperaturs and thus a better understanding of this new natural climate varibility branch of our field will only improve forecasts and implications.

It's what grants fund in universities that graduate and doctoral students literally give up their life to study in order to obtain their degree's further advancing scientific research and therefore operational implementations of this new knowledge. My goal is to do research in this exact area with hopefully an anthropogenic component to it.
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La Nina or El Nino.... which is it? - BobbiStorm, 9/12/2011, 9:36 pm
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