Re: Will 96L become another Mitch??
Posted by
weatherwindow on 10/24/2011, 5:07 pm
| hi bobbi.....i think all of us in sfl and the keys would love some clarification both on timing and intensity...with the exception of the gfdl and hwrf, which appear to have a handle on the intensification and to one degree or another, the rapid intensification which is ongoing this afternoon. jeff masters at wunderground/tropical believes that the last runs of the above models will, with some amendments, will verify. this will bring rina thru the florida keys on an ene course as a strong tropical storm after significant weakening from a likely cat 4 over the northwest caribbean. i am tending toward the same conclusions for much the same reasons. his timing reflects that of the gfdl and the hwrf with landfall late friday nite/early saturday morning. the remainder of the models wont reflect the new reality following rapid intensification until at least the 00Z runs tonite, perhaps not until tomorrow's 0600Z runs. they are currently dealing with a weak tropical storm which they tend to forecast minimal strengthening. hence, altho some aspects of steering are universal, i believe they have serious errors in the timing of the impact of the trough on a much stronger rina and its subsequent ejection to the ne or ene. the gfdl/hwrf both tend toward a fairly rapid ejection of the storm from the nw caribbean and subsequently the gaining of substantially more lattitude prior full impact of both the shear and steering. .....so now we wait and see what Mother's schedule is :)......ric |
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Will 96L become another Mitch?? -
beachman80,
10/21/2011, 3:10 pm Post A Reply
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