Now 50mph - Tropical Storm Watch issued
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 5/19/2012, 11:04 pm
Even the NHC is having some issues deciding its strength. I was hoping they would say what ship it was and what it said.
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
THE INTENSITY OF ALBERTO HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DECIPHER THIS
EVENING. WHILE AN EARLIER SHIP REPORT SUGGESTED THE STORM WAS
STRONGER...THE SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENTATION HAS BEEN ON THE
DECLINE SINCE THEN...WITH A NOTABLE DECREASE IN WINDS FROM THE
COASTAL DOPPLER RADARS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SHIP REPORT AND THE LOWER SATELLITE/RADAR
ESTIMATES. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE WARM
GULF STREAM WATERS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...MODERATE SHEAR ALONG
WITH PROBABLE ENTRAINMENT OF A DRY AIRMASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM COULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT WITH THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME
WEAKENING...AND THE STATISTICAL TOOLS SHOWING STRENGTHENING. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR
THE CONSENSUS.
ALBERTO APPEARS TO BE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT...AS IT IS
BEING STEERED PRIMARILY BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN IN A
DAY OR SO...WITH A COMPLEX STEERING FLOW PROBABLY CAUSING THE
CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THIS
MODEL CYCLE...THOUGH MOST OF THE RELIABLE MODELS STILL KEEP THE
STORM OFFSHORE. THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWEST OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS...AND IS NEAR THE TVCA
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE...THERE IS TOO LITTLE MARGIN FOR
ERROR TO NOT ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0300Z 31.8N 78.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 31.6N 79.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 31.4N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 31.8N 79.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 32.7N 78.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 35.0N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 38.0N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
-----------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 78.5W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
COASTAL INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM GEORGIA THROUGH THE OUTER BANKS OF
NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALBERTO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST. ALBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST IS FORECAST BY MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41004 LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES OFFSHORE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 39 MPH...63
KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 47 MPH...76 KM/H...DURING THE PAST HOUR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE WATCH AREA ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
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In this thread:
Albert with winds of 60 mph. -
LawKat,
5/19/2012, 8:15 pm Post A Reply
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