Re: I beg to differ with Jim
Posted by
BobbiStorm on 11/11/2012, 7:05 pm
100% Agree here.
I didn't listen to the arguments on the discussion earlier as I have been writing and working on commitments with Sandy...
Just reading through, but the main issue with the 1938 aside from everything else was indeed this:
"Here's something to consider--you contemplate what might have happened had the 1938 storm come in at Sandy's trajectory. Well, let's turn the tables--what if Sandy had hit in 1938? The primary reason for the loss of life in the 1938 storm was inadequate warning and ignorance of what was coming; only one met, to my knowledge, insisted the storm was headed for Long Island while residents tanned cluelessly on the beach."
As for storms...each are different as a great forecaster taught me years ago... years ago... each is different and not like the last.
And............size of the storm also affects a storm surge and duration over time of it's path.. length of path, etc.. not just the lay of the land or underwater structures... When discussing Gulf Coast storms each beach is different, here the land itself is a big issue such as Raritan Bay and Sandy's bad angle.
But a storm the length of time a surge is out there... speed it is traveling, distance it has traveled makes a big difference as well as the angle of approach.
1926 WNW towards Miami... vs a storm that comes in at odd angles like Charley or Sandy.
Just saying... so many variables not taken into consideration yet we always want to put a storm neatly into a category such as "a lot like the _______________________" storm.
Again... this was the main loss of life in that 38 storm... a weak knowledge of how hurricanes work, advanced warning and the comprehension of a storm moving fast at that latitude.
We should never have a set up like that and when people put on TV... TWC... any channel and see for themselves the storm and the models it's much more real than a small warning in a paper on a sunny day back in 1938. |
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Gianmarc,
11/2/2012, 5:33 pm Post A Reply
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