2 PM PDT
Posted by cypresstx on 5/29/2013, 5:17 pm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#BARBARA



000
WTPZ42 KNHC 292044
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022013
200 PM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

BARBARA RECENTLY MADE LANDFALL IN THE MEXICAN STATE OF CHIAPAS AS A
CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
THIS IS THE EASTERNMOST LANDFALL LOCATION FOR AN EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC HURRICANE SINCE RELIABLE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1966.  IT IS ALSO
THE SECOND-EARLIEST HURRICANE LANDFALL IN THE RELIABLE RECORD.

BARBARA SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AS IT CROSSES THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...AND MOVE INTO A REGION OF
WEAKER STEERING CURRENTS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A
DAY OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

NOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS INLAND...RAPID WEAKENING WILL OCCUR...AND
BARBARA WILL PROBABLY BE REDUCED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 12
HOURS OR SO...AND TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE TIME IT ENTERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO.  THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE SO DISRUPTED
BY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN THAT REGENERATION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IS UNLIKELY.  IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO INCREASE IN THE GULF...WHICH WOULD ALSO DISCOURAGE
REDEVELOPMENT.  ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED...SHOULD BARBARA
MAINTAIN TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS ALL THE WAY INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...IT WOULD RETAIN ITS NAME.

EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING...DISTURBED WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH BARBARA OR ITS REMNANTS IS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS WOULD
EXACERBATE AN ALREADY DANGEROUS FLOOD THREAT OVER THE REGION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 16.2N  94.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
12H  30/0600Z 17.3N  93.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
24H  30/1800Z 18.8N  94.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  31/0600Z 19.3N  94.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 292044
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022013
200 PM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

...BARBARA MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...
...PROLONGED THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS ANTICIPATED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 94.0W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM E OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO ANGEL TO BARRA DE TONALA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE TONALA TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST. BARBARA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER WILL BE MOVING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...AND INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS A
REMNANT LOW LATER ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  RAPID WEAKENING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...AND
BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER EASTERN OAXACA AND WESTERN CHIAPAS MEXICO...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN
OAXACA.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE AFFECTING THE COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS LIKELY RAISING WATER LEVELS BY 3 TO 5
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA

91
In this thread:
Will 92E form into Barbara & Cross into the GOM? - BobbiStorm, 5/28/2013, 8:57 pm
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