Re: Will 92E form into Barbara & Cross into the GOM?
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 5/30/2013, 4:50 am
Well I was wrong. Barbara is looking pretty good for nearly being in the Bay of Campeche. The question is will that convection stick around.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013 200 AM PDT THU MAY 30 2013
BARBARA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. BASED ON THE TIME SPENT OVER LAND AND THE LACK OF ANY REPORTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DISSIPATING SOON...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THAT REASONING. A REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST AT 12 HOURS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH DISSIPATION SHOWN AT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CENTER IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION AND A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION ARE MAINTAINED...BARBARA COULD EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER THIS MORNING. PLEASE NOTE THAT IF THIS OCCURS...THE NEXT ADVISORY WOULD BE ISSUED WITH ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND HEADERS.
DESPITE THE WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE...THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BARBARA IS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND A HEIGHTENED RISK OF DANGEROUS FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS REGION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0900Z 17.8N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 18.7N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
135
In this thread:
Will 92E form into Barbara & Cross into the GOM? -
BobbiStorm,
5/28/2013, 8:57 pm- So close, but she has officially dissipated - Chris in Tampa, 5/30/2013, 4:37 pm
- Re: Will 92E form into Barbara & Cross into the GOM? - Chris in Tampa, 5/30/2013, 4:50 am
- 8 pm 5/29 - cypresstx, 5/29/2013, 10:40 pm
- Re: Will 92E form into Barbara & Cross into the GOM? It would become TD1 in Atalanic Basin, right? - tvsteve, 5/29/2013, 7:18 pm
- Re: Will 92E form into Barbara & Cross into the GOM? - BobbiStorm, 5/29/2013, 4:12 pm
- 2 PM PDT - cypresstx, 5/29/2013, 5:17 pm
- Re: Will 92E form into Barbara & Cross into the GOM? - Chris in Tampa, 5/28/2013, 9:41 pm
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