Both are now orangey
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/14/2013, 1:27 am
At 2am on 14th...
92L - 30% in 48hrs / 40% in 120hrs (no change from last outlook) Western Carib.
93L - 40% in 48hrs / 50% in 120hrs (up from 20% in 48hrs / 30% in 120hrs) Off Africa
Floaters: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html
"TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT WED AUG 14 2013
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD TO JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BE MORE MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE LOW WILL BE MOVING TOWARD COOLER WATER AND DRIER AIR...WHICH COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=etwo
FORECASTER BERG" |
160
In this thread:
92L & 93L -
cypresstx,
8/13/2013, 5:27 pm- So who is going to get named first? - Both 80% chance within 5 days (70% 92L & 80% 93L in 48hrs) - Chris in Tampa, 8/14/2013, 8:39 pm
- Ssytem is coming together on Vis. Sat. - Will_TX, 8/14/2013, 4:10 pm
- The GFS & Euro aren't biting - Skip Wiley, 8/14/2013, 9:43 am
- In the 5 day range, both are now red - Chris in Tampa, 8/14/2013, 7:47 am
- Both are now orangey - Chris in Tampa, 8/14/2013, 1:27 am
- Re: 92L & 93L - freesong, 8/13/2013, 10:10 pm
- Re: 92L & 93L - DTB_2009, 8/13/2013, 8:39 pm
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