Re: CMC is biting
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/14/2013, 11:15 am
Looks like shear will increase later further to the north.
12Z run on 14th: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/13081412AL9313_ships.txt From: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/
The water temperature is marginal with little heat content in that area of the Atlantic. CMC takes it further south though. Maybe that might be part of the reason. Looks like the CMC starts trying to develop all sorts of things.
From the SHIPS file, I don't think that is doing well with that area of the Atlantic. I wish I understood more of the SHIPS file. I was looking some here: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/research/tropical_cyclones/ships/references.asp But that's more indepth than I am looking for.
The "INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE" part seems to indicate that the "SST POTENTIAL" is contributing heavily to the SHIPS intensity forecast yet the heat content is extremely low and while the SSTs are warm enough, they are not that great. Looking at some other numbers in there too, I just don't think it accounts well for low heat content. |
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In this thread:
92L & 93L -
cypresstx,
8/13/2013, 5:27 pm- So who is going to get named first? - Both 80% chance within 5 days (70% 92L & 80% 93L in 48hrs) - Chris in Tampa, 8/14/2013, 8:39 pm
- Ssytem is coming together on Vis. Sat. - Will_TX, 8/14/2013, 4:10 pm
- The GFS & Euro aren't biting - Skip Wiley, 8/14/2013, 9:43 am
- CMC is biting - Shalista, 8/14/2013, 10:09 am
- Re: CMC is biting - BobbiStorm, 8/14/2013, 11:38 am
- Re: CMC is biting - Chris in Tampa, 8/14/2013, 11:15 am
- In the 5 day range, both are now red - Chris in Tampa, 8/14/2013, 7:47 am
- Both are now orangey - Chris in Tampa, 8/14/2013, 1:27 am
- Re: 92L & 93L - freesong, 8/13/2013, 10:10 pm
- Re: 92L & 93L - DTB_2009, 8/13/2013, 8:39 pm
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