Re: CMC is biting
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/14/2013, 11:15 am
Looks like shear will increase later further to the north.

12Z run on 14th:
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/13081412AL9313_ships.txt
From: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/

The water temperature is marginal with little heat content in that area of the Atlantic. CMC takes it further south though. Maybe that might be part of the reason. Looks like the CMC starts trying to develop all sorts of things.

From the SHIPS file, I don't think that is doing well with that area of the Atlantic. I wish I understood more of the SHIPS file. I was looking some here:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/research/tropical_cyclones/ships/references.asp
But that's more indepth than I am looking for.

The "INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE" part seems to indicate that the "SST POTENTIAL" is contributing heavily to the SHIPS intensity forecast yet the heat content is extremely low and while the SSTs are warm enough, they are not that great. Looking at some other numbers in there too, I just don't think it accounts well for low heat content.
151
In this thread:
92L & 93L - cypresstx, 8/13/2013, 5:27 pm
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.