StormW thinks 92L has the edge
Posted by cypresstx on 8/14/2013, 9:16 pm
http://stormw.wordpress.com/

Based on my analysis of the current run of the GFS Wind Shear and Zonal Shear forecast, and current satellite loop imagery, I believe INVEST 92L may become a Tropical Depression late tonight, or by tomorrow morning.  My reasoning for this is, the shear forecast is indicating upper level winds to become more conducive over the next 6 hours, where the upper level anticyclone should be over the disturbance.  The CIMSS site is down right now due to hardware failure, but the last run of the GFS Global Model indicates the upper level anticyclone to be displaced as of earlier this afternoon.  However, shear values are indicated to be below 15 knots, and based on satellite loop imagery, there is an established outflow pattern over the system mainly in the north and east portions.  One other factor in this, before the system crosses onto the Yucatan Peninsula, it will be traversing some pretty high TCHP values, which should aid in intensification.  In terms of a hurricane, TCHP values of >60 kJ / cm-2 will allow for sustaining a hurricane, and allow for rapid intensification in a hurricane.  In fact, a little more research implies the TCHP value may be lower as far as aiding in intensification, as provided by the RAMSDIS site, referencing a value of 50+ kJ / cm-2.
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92L & 93L - cypresstx, 8/13/2013, 5:27 pm
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