Re: 97L's chances in next five days have been increased to 50% (as of 2am on Oct 1st)
Posted by cypresstx on 10/1/2013, 2:17 pm
not sure how that wave might interact, if even at all?

WFO's across the northern gulf are paying attn, here's Tallahassee - I might add I love their use of NON-CAPS

LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Monday]...
The long term forecast remains highly uncertain as what looked
like some decent model agreement has diminished with the the 12z
runs today. The only notable trend this past model cycle is
toward a slower solution with the eventual cold front not arriving
in the forecast area until at least Saturday night or Sunday
morning. The 30/00z Euro started the slower trend with an
amplification of the base of the trough by Sunday, which resulted
in a surface wave developing along the frontal boundary, slowing the
overall eastward progression of the system across our area. The
30/12z GFS trended slightly toward this solution, though its
ensemble mean stayed relatively progressive. The net result this
forecast cycle was to push the best rain chances in the inherited
forecast back 12 to 24 hours across the board, which now features
higher rain chances Saturday night through Sunday. Even this,
should the latest Euro verify, would not be sufficient as rainy
conditions would be possible through Monday across a portion of
the forecast area.

If there is any agreement in the models it is with respect to
whatever tropical contribution is made to this time period...and
that looks to only be in the form of increased deep layer moisture.
None of the global guidance has much luck developing a closed area
of low pressure with the system across the Northwest Caribbean.
Rainfall amounts could be a little higher than previously
anticipated with a slower progression of the weather this weekend,
but still not anticipating more than an inch of rain areally.
183
In this thread:
97L's chances in next five days have been increased to 50% (as of 2am on Oct 1st) - Chris in Tampa, 10/1/2013, 2:11 am
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.