Re: 97L's chances in next five days have been increased to 50% (as of 2am on Oct 1st)
Posted by
cypresstx on 10/1/2013, 2:17 pm
not sure how that wave might interact, if even at all?
WFO's across the northern gulf are paying attn, here's Tallahassee - I might add I love their use of NON-CAPS
LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Monday]... The long term forecast remains highly uncertain as what looked like some decent model agreement has diminished with the the 12z runs today. The only notable trend this past model cycle is toward a slower solution with the eventual cold front not arriving in the forecast area until at least Saturday night or Sunday morning. The 30/00z Euro started the slower trend with an amplification of the base of the trough by Sunday, which resulted in a surface wave developing along the frontal boundary, slowing the overall eastward progression of the system across our area. The 30/12z GFS trended slightly toward this solution, though its ensemble mean stayed relatively progressive. The net result this forecast cycle was to push the best rain chances in the inherited forecast back 12 to 24 hours across the board, which now features higher rain chances Saturday night through Sunday. Even this, should the latest Euro verify, would not be sufficient as rainy conditions would be possible through Monday across a portion of the forecast area.
If there is any agreement in the models it is with respect to whatever tropical contribution is made to this time period...and that looks to only be in the form of increased deep layer moisture. None of the global guidance has much luck developing a closed area of low pressure with the system across the Northwest Caribbean. Rainfall amounts could be a little higher than previously anticipated with a slower progression of the weather this weekend, but still not anticipating more than an inch of rain areally. |
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97L's chances in next five days have been increased to 50% (as of 2am on Oct 1st) -
Chris in Tampa,
10/1/2013, 2:11 am- Re: 97L's chances in next five days have been increased to 50% (as of 2am on Oct 1st) - stevemc12, 10/2/2013, 2:16 pm
- 24, 48 & 72-hr graphical surface forecasts - cypresstx, 10/1/2013, 6:50 pm
- Re: 97L's chances in next five days have been increased to 50% (as of 2am on Oct 1st) - beachman80, 10/1/2013, 5:56 pm
- Re: 97L's chances in next five days have been increased to 50% (as of 2am on Oct 1st) - stevemc12, 10/1/2013, 4:26 pm
- Re: 97L's chances in next five days have been increased to 50% (as of 2am on Oct 1st) - AquaRN, 10/1/2013, 3:24 pm
- Re: 97L's chances in next five days have been increased to 50% (as of 2am on Oct 1st) - cypresstx, 10/1/2013, 9:57 am
- Re: 97L's chances in next five days have been increased to 50% (as of 2am on Oct 1st) - beachman80, 10/1/2013, 8:03 am
- Re: 97L's chances in next five days have been increased to 50% (as of 2am on Oct 1st) - stevemc12, 10/1/2013, 5:14 am
- Re: 97L's chances in next five days have been increased to 50% (as of 2am on Oct 1st) - Beachlover, 10/1/2013, 3:07 am
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