| Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/025738.shtml?5day#contents Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/14L_floater.html HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2016 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft this evening measured two peak SFMR winds of 125 kt in the northeastern eyewall, along with a peak flight-level wind of 129 kt. The lowest pressure measured by a dropsonde has been 934 mb, down 6 mb since the previous flight. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been increased to 125 kt. Matthew continues to move a little east of due north, or 010/07 kt. There is no change to the previous short-term track forecast reasoning. Matthew is expected to move northward around the western periphery of a strong deep-layer ridge for the next 24 hours, followed by a north-northwestward motion at 36 and 48 hours. That portion of the new forecast track is essentially the same as the previous advisory, bringing Matthew over the southwestern peninsula of Haiti tonight and near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday. Beyond 48 hours, the GFS has again trended westward, and now lies closer to the UKMET model track. This change might be related to the mid-/upper-level trough currently located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which is now forecast to split, with the northern portion lifting out to the northeast and dissipating while the southern portion cuts of into a low pressure system that drops southward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea by 36-48 hours. The new track forecast has again been shifted westward closer to Florida, and lies near a blend of the 18Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF model solutions. Only slight weakening is expected during the next couple of days due to Matthew interacting with the land masses of western Haiti and eastern Cuba. After the hurricane emerges over the Atlantic waters between Cuba and the Bahamas, low vertical wind shear and warm SSTs of near 30C should help Matthew to recover some before southwesterly wind shear increases by 96-120 hours and induces a faster rate of weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast is basically identical to the previous advisory, and closely follows the consensus model IVCN. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in portions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other government officials in those countries. 2. Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this week. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches are likely tomorrow morning for portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys. 3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther north. At a minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 16.9N 74.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 18.3N 74.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 20.0N 74.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 21.8N 75.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 23.4N 76.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 26.6N 78.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 30.0N 79.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 33.3N 77.6W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2016 ...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MATTHEW HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY... ...LIFE-THREATENING RAIN...WIND...AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF HAITI TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 74.6W ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM S OF TIBURON HAITI ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Haiti * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas * Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island * Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Camaguey * Turks and Caicos Islands * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Matthew. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 74.6 West. Matthew is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue tonight through Tuesday. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach southwestern Haiti tonight and Tuesday morning, move near eastern Cuba late Tuesday, and move near or over portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas Tuesday night and Wednesday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through at least Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach Haiti tonight, eastern Cuba Tuesday, the southeastern Bahamas late Tuesday, and the central Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue spreading across Haiti tonight, eastern Cuba by early Tuesday morning, the southeastern Bahamas early Tuesday, and the central Bahamas Tuesday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of Jamaica and along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas in Cuba and the Turks and Caicos Islands by Tuesday night with tropical storm conditions possible on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in the following areas: Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25 inches, isolated 40 inches Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Eastern Jamaica...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 to 20 inches The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches Western Jamaica...1 to 3 inches, isolated 6 inches Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely from this rainfall in southern and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels... Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet Jamaica...2 to 4 feet Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few days. Swells from Matthew will begin affecting portions of the Bahamas on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart |