| I went to bed with it still not looking too great and now, wow. I was really hoping it would wait longer to strengthen. It now has a lot of time. The NHC only has it coming up to 85mph (at the last forecast point, but it will strengthen all the way up until expected landfall), but that could definitely be too low. 2am early cycle/8pm late cycle models max intensity: SHIPS, with land taken into account: 91mph (79 knots) ICON intensity consensus: 93mph (81 knots) LGEM: 99mph (86 knots) HWRF: 102mph (89 knots) But those could still be quite conservative. * ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/24/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 51 56 62 74 79 79 74 70 64 62 60 V (KT) LAND 40 45 51 56 62 74 79 59 38 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 51 56 63 77 86 65 40 31 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 8 4 7 8 3 11 10 24 22 29 25 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -2 -3 -6 -3 -1 0 -2 -5 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 250 261 184 188 224 244 278 278 255 230 241 226 232 SST (C) 30.0 30.2 30.4 30.5 30.3 29.6 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 168 170 171 171 171 161 157 158 158 157 154 151 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 154 159 162 156 140 134 132 130 127 127 123 123 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -51.5 -51.6 -51.1 -51.1 -50.8 -51.2 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 12 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 69 67 68 68 67 72 71 75 70 70 62 62 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 18 19 20 21 25 25 23 20 18 17 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR 28 22 27 27 10 39 9 15 -17 13 -3 36 11 200 MB DIV 22 20 33 32 17 44 21 12 13 63 59 41 63 700-850 TADV 2 0 5 6 3 5 18 4 8 2 -6 3 1 LAND (KM) 296 366 437 357 269 147 66 -47 -136 -155 -107 -90 -97 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.2 23.8 24.5 25.2 26.4 27.6 28.5 29.1 29.1 28.6 28.4 28.4 LONG(DEG W) 92.6 93.0 93.3 94.0 94.6 95.8 96.4 97.0 97.6 97.9 97.8 97.8 97.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 9 8 7 6 4 3 1 2 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 46 57 67 71 79 57 32 47 51 30 32 31 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 37.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 15. 17. 19. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 7. 5. 1. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 10. 8. 3. 1. -1. -0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 22. 34. 39. 39. 34. 30. 24. 22. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 22.6 92.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/24/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 14.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.82 6.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 64.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.41 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.84 7.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.79 4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.26 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 94.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.84 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 4.7 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 6.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 7.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 6.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 43% is 8.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 43% is 8.1 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 66% is 10.9 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.7% 54.3% 45.2% 30.0% 17.0% 42.5% 42.9% 65.7% Logistic: 33.1% 71.5% 61.5% 39.1% 12.8% 63.4% 56.0% 49.8% Bayesian: 8.5% 46.1% 30.0% 10.6% 4.3% 12.2% 8.0% 5.4% Consensus: 20.4% 57.3% 45.6% 26.6% 11.4% 39.4% 35.7% 40.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/24/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/24/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 45 51 56 62 74 79 59 38 30 28 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 45 50 56 68 73 53 32 24 22 21 21 12HR AGO 40 37 36 41 47 59 64 44 23 15 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 36 48 53 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT SHIPS intensity output has 43% of 55 knot increase in 48 hours. From 40 knots, that would be 95 knots. (109mph) It has a 66% chance of a 65 knot increase in 72 hours. That would be 105 knots. (121mph) As I mentioned previously, I'm not sure how that 72 hour value works because it is forecast to be on land then. However, perhaps it works like the version of SHIPS that doesn't take land into account. If the storm were to not reach the coast for 72 hours, then perhaps that is the chance of what it could go up to. I don't know how that part works. So in addition to isolated maximum amount of 25 inches, Harvey's wind, and storm surge as well, are increasing threats. This is increasingly becoming a significant threat on all fronts. Another Air Force mission in en route to Harvey: http://hurricanecity.com/recon/ G I-V continues to sample around Harvey at this hour. You can follow information on NOAA HRD's blog for upcoming recon missions. (https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/ ) Or NHC's Plan of the Day: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php |