GFS and Euro
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/31/2017, 4:59 pm
This post discusses the Euro and GFS beyond 5 days. I post it so you can see the differences in what the models forecast. It's too early to know where this storm will go in the long range, even whether it will have direct impacts on any of the Antilles.

12Z Euro and GFS are available for today.

500mb height in global models (links to latest runs)...

GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z500_mslp&fh=216

Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=z500_mslp&fh=216

Euro continues to have strong high pressure steering Irma much further westward. You can compare around 144 hours to 216 hours and see how the Euro allows high pressure to build back westward. On the GFS, it doesn't and the storm starts curving more.

But it's beyond 5 days. I don't know which is more likely. Euro is pretty much the western outlier out of all the models:
http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2017&storm=11&display=google_map&latestrun=1

Here are the ensembles at 12Z today (saved images):

GFS:



Euro:



These are from:
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al112017/

For ensembles, "Track > Probabilistic" look for:

00Z, 06Z, 12Z or 18Z run next to "GEFS (US)" for GFS.
00Z or 12Z run next to "EPS (Europe)" for Euro.



Here was the 0Z mentioned by Eric Blake from that site:

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/903190361388064768


Jim Cantore mentioning them yesterday:

https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/903088547304964097




Technical data on when Euro is available...

I don't know when it appears on other sites, but this is the time the Euro comes out on the ECMWF server.

00Z run:
HRES (high resolution single model) comes out at: 6:55Z (2:55am EDT)
Ensemble (51 models)/HRES comes out at: 7:41Z (3:41am EDT)

12Z run:
HRES comes out at: 18:55Z (2:55pm EDT)
Ensemble/HRES comes out at: 19:41Z (3:41pm EDT)

Output times from:
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/documentation-and-support/data-delivery/dissemination-schedule

It used to be 4:21am/pm EDT for the Euro ensemble. I didn't know it comes in earlier now. That change was made March 7th, 2017. The model system at HurricaneCity was designed to not check until after that time. I need to update that. Once I make the changes, the Euro ensemble should be added into model data for a storm (not invests) at 4:05am/pm EDT. (previously it was 4:35am/pm EDT)
270
In this thread:
Irma has become a major hurricane - Chris in Tampa, 8/31/2017, 4:48 pm
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.