Re: Video from Levi Cowan
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 9/1/2017, 2:36 pm
16 Day GFS (very long range and much less reliable in long range):
Thursday:
00Z: Near Bermuda//Near Cape Cod/Maine 06Z: North Carolina/Virginia/Across much of New England 12Z: Near Bermuda/Near Cape Cod/Nova Scotia 18Z: Rhode Island/Massachusetts/New Hampshire/Maine
Today (Friday):
00Z: North Carolina/Virginia/Maryland/Delaware 06Z: No landfall (West of Bermuda, SE of Cape Cod, S of Nova Scotia, SE of Newfoundland) 12Z: NE of Antilles/Rhode Island/Connecticut/Massachusetts/New Hampshire/Maine
10 Day Euro (shorter range):
Thursday:
00Z: Northern (and near Central) Lesser Antilles/Passing over much of Greater Antilles (Puerto Rico/Hispaniola/Cuba)/Key West 12Z: NE Antilles/Passing just north of coasts of some of Greater Antilles (and around Cuban coast)/Key West
Today (Friday):
00Z: NE corner of Antilles/Just east of Bahamas/End of run at 10 days is between Florida and Bermuda 12Z: Only part of run available so far as of posting this
But it's good to look at ensembles too... http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al112017/ And other models.
For the NHC's 5 day forecast point, on average over the past 5 years the center point of the storm would only be within 211 nautical miles (243 miles) of the 5 day forecast point forecast about 2/3rds of the time. That's what the cone represents. Each forecast point has a circle around it, that helps make the cone, that represents the center point of the storm being within that circle about two-thirds of the time.
About that: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify4.shtml
When you consider the error for 5 days, 10 days for the Euro is a long time. And with the GFS, beyond two weeks is extreme.
But if you look at both, they are impacting land, somewhere, much more often that not. |
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In this thread:
Irma has become a major hurricane -
Chris in Tampa,
8/31/2017, 4:48 pm- Current spaghetti models (from Hurricane City) - tvsteve, 9/1/2017, 7:56 am
- Re: Irma has become a major hurricane - stevemc12, 9/1/2017, 12:52 am
- Re: Irma has become a major hurricane - stevemc12, 8/31/2017, 7:22 pm
- Re: Irma has become a major hurricane - Chris in Tampa, 8/31/2017, 6:03 pm
- GFS and Euro - Chris in Tampa, 8/31/2017, 4:59 pm
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