Re: Video from Levi Cowan
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/1/2017, 2:36 pm
16 Day GFS (very long range and much less reliable in long range):

Thursday:

00Z: Near Bermuda//Near Cape Cod/Maine
06Z: North Carolina/Virginia/Across much of New England
12Z: Near Bermuda/Near Cape Cod/Nova Scotia
18Z: Rhode Island/Massachusetts/New Hampshire/Maine

Today (Friday):

00Z: North Carolina/Virginia/Maryland/Delaware
06Z: No landfall (West of Bermuda, SE of Cape Cod, S of Nova Scotia, SE of Newfoundland)
12Z: NE of Antilles/Rhode Island/Connecticut/Massachusetts/New Hampshire/Maine

10 Day Euro (shorter range):

Thursday:

00Z: Northern (and near Central) Lesser Antilles/Passing over much of Greater Antilles (Puerto Rico/Hispaniola/Cuba)/Key West
12Z: NE Antilles/Passing just north of coasts of some of Greater Antilles (and around Cuban coast)/Key West

Today (Friday):

00Z: NE corner of Antilles/Just east of Bahamas/End of run at 10 days is between Florida and Bermuda
12Z: Only part of run available so far as of posting this

But it's good to look at ensembles too...
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al112017/
And other models.



For the NHC's 5 day forecast point, on average over the past 5 years the center point of the storm would only be within 211 nautical miles (243 miles) of the 5 day forecast point forecast about 2/3rds of the time. That's what the cone represents. Each forecast point has a circle around it, that helps make the cone, that represents the center point of the storm being within that circle about two-thirds of the time.

About that:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify4.shtml

When you consider the error for 5 days, 10 days for the Euro is a long time. And with the GFS, beyond two weeks is extreme.

But if you look at both, they are impacting land, somewhere, much more often that not.
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Irma has become a major hurricane - Chris in Tampa, 8/31/2017, 4:48 pm
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