Re: Latest Euro Takes Irma Out to Sea
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/2/2017, 4:31 pm
Wide view of 500mb level of Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=z500_mslp&fh=240

Model swings will continue back and forth I imagine.

Looking at the end of that 10 day forecast, I don't where it might go from there. I wouldn't necessarily say it will move away from land, including Canada. Obviously models are swinging around a lot still long range, but assuming for a moment something like that were to happen, there looks like there is high pressure moving down from Canada at the end. This will all continue to change in later runs I'm sure, so no need to pay too much attention to trying to figure out what would happen then in the model.

So for one run, the Euro is now right of the GFS. GFS has high pressure in the way and it turns the storm into the coast. I don't know what the Euro would show beyond 10 days, but perhaps high pressure would build in late. These models don't seem to have a good sense of things yet. Although, the GFS has been being more consistent lately. But so far out, still too uncertain. The Euro isn't being consistent on whether high pressure will be able to build back. I don't know a lot about this, but even in that 12Z Euro run, around the forecast hour 192, that's seems like kind of a close call in my amateur opinion of the high not building back.

Here's the Euro ensembles for 12Z:



ECMO: High resolution Euro
ECME: Control member (behind EE30 in that image)
EExx: Ensemble members

From:

http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2017&storm=11&display=google_map&latestrun=1
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Latest Euro Takes Irma Out to Sea - Gianmarc, 9/2/2017, 3:49 pm
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