Close Call
Posted by
CX on 9/2/2017, 6:09 pm
Go to hours 144-168.
The trough is weakening and lifting out as a new high moves in from west. At these points, Irma is a Cat 5 in the Bahamas and is moving slowly.
If that trough is slightly weaker, or ejects slightly faster, or Irma is slightly more south than projected, the high from the west could build in and block Irma.
The same could occur if either of the highs are stronger than modelled or Irma is weaker.
Lots of moving parts this far out.
PS. As a side note, the 18z GFS has the cyclone slightly more S and slower in the short term (108 hours). It still ramps her up into the cat 5 range N of PR as well. I am curious to see if this occurs and I am curious to know if the deep nature of the cyclone is biasing models to the OTS conclusion. |
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