Re: GFS Trend
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/2/2017, 11:56 pm
There's no need. For wind, category 5 is already catastrophic.


Category 4 (130-156 mph):
"Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months."

Category 5 (157 mph or higher):
"Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months."

From: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php


The difference between 160mph and 180mph, if we were to imagine a new category around there, would likely be hard to tell in most areas. Most homes would already be destroyed, they would just be broken up into smaller pieces. Some homes might survive, like those dome homes, but I wouldn't count on it.

I'm not sure when really well built commercial buildings would fail. I'm talking about buildings that might be around 4 or more stories tall. I would think most apartment buildings that are a few stories would already be destroyed by 180mph, some way, way before that. You really don't know how well something is built until after the storm, I don't care what it's rated at.

There's just no need for a special category. If you increased the scale, a category three hurricane would be in the bottom half of the wind scale. People don't need less reason to evacuate.

And category 5 hurricanes are very rare already:

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/903953654834716672
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