Anyone else struggling to find a silver lining? The scenarios:
Posted by
Gambit7 on 9/5/2017, 3:18 pm
Sitting here staring at all of the variables, and at this point the BEST thing that could happen is a brush with Cuba?
But let's analyze this; an annular system over the low-lying canefields of Cuba for 12 hours that sits near stationary over the straights? I laugh at folk that think this is good. If anything, it's bad. Many models have the storm deepening 20+ mb during this time and Cuba wont take much of a chunk out of an annular storm. If the storm widens and spreads its energy then maybe she'll dip into cat4 before striking the mainland; but then other variable come into play like surge and rain.
West coast vs. east coast vs spine of florida? ALL of these are bad. A Tampa Bay storm moving north? Look up the models for this scenario and your spine will tingle. An inland peninsular spine storm? Wipes out Florida's famous suburban megalopolis. A Sobe coast north storm? Destroys the bread and butter of the state. Maybe a naples landfall is the best option here, but who knows what the storm's shape will be then.
Right now the storm's structure is such that it's holding the distinct comma-tail shape. Superimpose this over the state and you see how fruitless these track arguments are (for instance, a peninsular track bring the strong part of the CDO right over inland lauderdale/miami/wpb. e.g. all these tracks arel bad.
The best scenario is some sort of structural breakdown of the system right in the nick of time? Maybe become more of a spread out Wilma storm? We shall see... but the forecast in the straights doesn't support this notion. She will wind up before the approach no matter what. |
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Anyone else struggling to find a silver lining? The scenarios: - Gambit7, 9/5/2017, 3:18 pm Post A Reply
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