Re: what's going on with Irma's eye?
Posted by beachman80 on 9/8/2017, 11:08 am
Couple things I'm noticing:

1) Reminds me a little of Katrina. If you remember Katrina, she got up to 175mph. It was a monster and it looked scary as ever. But as it got closer to land, the structure looked a little less impressive. The eye didn't have that perfect look to it. It still packed a powerful punch, but the "look" of it wasn't what it was as a Cat. 5. Same appears to be going on here. Still a very powerful cat. 4 storm, but it just doesn't have that "perfect structure" to it like it did at this time yesterday.

That being said, this could just be a temporary eyewall replacement or maybe some mid-level shear is getting into it. It could ramp right back up.

2) I am not so sure this thing is going to avoid Cuba. The UKMET may be on to something here. It's going to have to make more of a sharper turn to the WNW very fast. The good news is Cuba will knock this thing down quite a bit if it crosses and spends some time there.

The concern I have is the way these models just keep moving more and more west, It seems like it jost won't stop. It's on the borderline where another 40-50 mile shift puts this is a little more into the SE GOM, where the water is almost 90 degrees, and puts a city like Naples or Fort Myers more in play for a direct hit. Really curious to see the 12z Euro and if it stops the westward trend. A ride up the west coast of Florida is still unlikely, but not out of the cards. More and more ensemble runs are actually hinting at that possibility.
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what's going on with Irma's eye? - Gianmarc, 9/8/2017, 10:53 am
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