Re: Special Advisory
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 7/31/2020, 12:48 am
Satellite
http://hurricanecity.com/custom-satellite/index.htm?type=Animation&numframes=12&width=700&height=550&zoom=1&mapcolor=white&lat=23&lon=-74
Radar for later:
Will be on one of Cuba's a little bit later: http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/06Gran%20Piedra/gpdMAXw01a.gif
A bit far from Guantanamo Bay's radar: https://www.metoc.navy.mil/fwcn/animate.html?icao=mugm&type=CMaxZH240 From: https://www.metoc.navy.mil/fwcn/fwcn.html#!/swr.html
A little later, Bahamas: http://tropicalatlantic.com/radars/live/bahamas/ That is the longer display I created. This is the Bahamas radar site I get imagery from: http://smartmet.bahamasweather.org.bs/radarcomposite/
Given the storm is getting better organized around the center based on satellite imagery, and is stronger, I would say the intensity forecast is more uncertain now earlier on. The NHC discussion for the special advisory was brief. (they did have to put it out quick of course) 24 to 36 hours is a lot of time for it to do nothing more than increase in intensity by 5mph. Bahamas should be paying a lot more attention to it now in case it has a window to strengthen a lot more during the time before shear might start to have more of an impact. I'm working on a lot of future updates to tropical products on my site later in the year, so I haven't taken a look at much data on the storm, like even recon. (http://hurricanecity.com/recon/)
The core is small and small systems can be challenging. Overall the system isn't small, but the core might fluctuate in intensity more greatly, perhaps becoming stronger faster, and then perhaps the potential at some point to weaken more if it were to be impacted by shear later. Hopefully everyone is keeping an eye on it for points after the Bahamas too.
Hurricane Isaias Special Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1200 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter found that Isaias has become a hurricane. Maximum flight-level winds so far were 87 kt at 850 mb, with believable SFMR values of at least 65 kt. A blend of these values gives an initial wind speed of 70 kt. Some further strengthening is likely over the next 24 hours before increasing southwesterly shear could weaken the system. The intensity forecast is modified upward from 5-10 kt through 48 hours and unchanged after that time.
There are no changes to the previous track forecast.
Key Messages:
1. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas.
2. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of the southeastern Bahamas overnight, central and northwestern Bahamas late Friday and Saturday, and Hurricane Warnings are in effect for these areas. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
3. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the Florida east coast beginning Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. While storm surge watches are not currently needed for this area, they may be required on Friday if the forecast track shifts closer to the coast. Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect South Florida and east-Central Florida beginning late Friday night, potentially resulting in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.
4. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge late this weekend from the northeastern Florida coast and spreading northward along the remainder of the U.S. east coast through early next week. The details of the track and intensity forecast remain uncertain, and it is too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts, but interests along the entire U.S. east coast should monitor the progress of Isaias and updates to the forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/0400Z 20.4N 72.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 21.6N 73.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 23.5N 76.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 25.2N 77.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 26.7N 79.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 02/1200Z 28.3N 79.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 30.0N 79.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 34.6N 76.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 42.0N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$ Forecaster Blake |
106
In this thread:
Isaias -
AquaRN,
7/28/2020, 8:10 pm- Re: Isaias - Fred, 8/8/2020, 2:17 pm
- U.S. has seen five named storm landfalls already, which is earliest on record for that to happen - Chris in Tampa, 8/3/2020, 11:34 pm
- 11pm EDT Monday: 85mph - Chris in Tampa, 8/3/2020, 11:17 pm
- 8pm EDT Monday: Hurricane Again: 75mph - Chris in Tampa, 8/3/2020, 8:53 pm
- The latest HMON model is acting up... - Target, 8/3/2020, 7:42 am
- Long Island - Fred, 8/2/2020, 6:39 pm
- Time lapse video from yesterday from hurricane hunters in Isaias - Chris in Tampa, 8/1/2020, 8:48 pm
- Re: Isaias - stevemc12, 8/1/2020, 2:27 pm
- Radar loop from Bahamas - Chris in Tampa, 8/1/2020, 8:48 am
- NWS Weather & Hazards Map - cypresstx, 8/1/2020, 4:48 am
- Re: Isaias - stevemc12, 7/31/2020, 12:39 pm
- Models - beachman80, 7/30/2020, 8:54 pm
- Re: Isaias - karen, 7/30/2020, 7:03 pm
- Re: Isaias - knuckle, 7/30/2020, 12:20 pm
- Now officially Isaias - Chris in Tampa, 7/29/2020, 11:03 pm
- cams - cypresstx, 7/30/2020, 6:31 am
- Re: Isaias - Fred, 7/29/2020, 9:32 pm
- Re: Isaias - beachman80, 7/28/2020, 9:13 pm
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.