70% within 5 days at 8pm EDT Wednesday
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/30/2020, 9:03 pm
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located over the west-central Caribbean Sea is
expected to continue moving westward over the next couple of days,
and produce a broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean
Sea or extreme southern Gulf of Mexico by Thursday night or Friday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some
development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over
the weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan
Peninsula, and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Another tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized shower
activity. This disturbance is forecast to move westward during the
next several days where environmental conditions could become a
little more conducive for development over the central or western
Caribbean Sea by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart









I'm not sure about the first one. I have watched the GFS recently and it has some unusual movement with that one in the Gulf. The second one the NHC mentions has been developed more at times with the GFS and also shown at times to be more of a threat to the U.S. But it's early on for the second one and even on the first I have no idea what direction it might head.

It's getting to the time of the year that fronts start coming down and can turn storms.

Climatology:





From: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/#ori




It's hard to see on the Euro at the moment where the areas might go, so I'll link to vorticity:

GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=z850_vort

Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=uv850_vort

And then also the versions showing the low centers, if low enough:

GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850

Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850



Recon Plan of the Day mentions that an invest mission is possible on Friday for the first one in the western Carib.



NOUS42 KNHC 301415
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT WED 30 SEPTEMBER 2020
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z OCTOBER 2020
TCPOD NUMBER.....20-127

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR
18.0N 86.0W FOR 02/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$





As of posting, no possible tropical cyclone noted on 72 hour surface forecast image yet:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif
From: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/#graphical

Jim was right about western Carib in October starting to be more active. We'll just have to watch the areas. I'm enjoying the cooler weather right now even though when the fronts start coming it means storms can turn my way more easily.
49
In this thread:
Local FL Big Bend Mets forecasting possible Caribbean development in next 5 days - AlligatorPointer, 9/30/2020, 10:42 am
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.