Track: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?cone#contents Satellite floaters: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL132023 https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al132023 Carib view: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=car&band=13&length=24 Most of the storm is now on the U.S. East Coast satellite view: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=eus&band=13&length=12 You can really get a good perspective of how large the storm is. SLIDER display from Colorado State: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=10792&y=3904&z=2&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=band_13&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6 From the public advisory: "Saildrone 1036, located about 75 miles (120 km) northwest of Lee's center, recently reported a wind gust to 88 mph (141 km/h)." To view a chart with data: https://gandalf.gcoos.org/ Click on "Dashboard" to close it and view the map. Then zoom in to near the storm and click the little upside down T looking icon, partially obscured by the red track line. You can view a chart of wind. I was looking for text data, but found a site that doesn't work well and doesn't have data since 0Z Wednesday (8pm EDT Tuesday). It also crashes the page if you load much data: https://data.pmel.noaa.gov/generic/erddap/tabledap/sd1036_hurricane_2023.html Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 12 2023 Geostationary satellite images show that Lee has a large eye about 40 n mi in diameter surrounded by very cold-topped central convection. There are numerous convective banding features, especially over the northern portion of the circulation. The cirrus-level outflow pattern is fairly symmetric at this time, suggesting that the vertical wind shear over the system is still low. The intensity estimate is held at 100 kt for this advisory, which is a blend of subjective and objective satellite estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW/CIMSS. The objective intensity estimates are generally a little higher than the subjective values. Lee continues to move on a generally northwestward heading, with a motion estimate of 320/6 kt, on the southwestern side of a mid-level anticyclone. Over the next couple of days, a 500-mb trough moving through the eastern United States should induce a northward turn with some increase in forward speed. Even though the predicted track has the center of the hurricane passing well to the west of Bermuda, Lee's very large wind field should result in tropical storm conditions spreading over the island by late Wednesday or early Thursday. In the 3 to 4 day time frame, the model guidance suggests just a slight leftward bend in the track while Lee interacts with the trough. There has been little change to the NHC forecast track, which remains close to the corrected and simple model consensus predictions. After 96 hours, Lee should turn northeastward and east-northeastward in the mid-latitude westerlies. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next few days days while Lee moves over cooler waters and encounters high vertical wind shear. However the system is likely to remain a large and dangerous hurricane while it approaches the coast. If Lee moves faster than forecast over the colder waters north of the Gulf Stream, it will likely retain more of its strength when it reaches land. Around 96 hours, simulated satellite imagery from the global models show the appearance of an extratropical cyclone with decreased convection and an asymmetric cloud pattern. It should again be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text product and graphics are likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field of Lee is considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and most of the U.S East Coast through much of the week. 2. Tropical storm conditions, heavy rainfall, and high surf are expected to impact Bermuda beginning Wednesday night or early Thursday, and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the island. 3. It remains too soon to know what level of additional impacts Lee might have along the northeastern U.S. coast and Atlantic Canada late this week and this weekend. However, since wind and rainfall hazards will extend well away from the center as Lee grows in size, users should continue to monitor updates to Lee's forecast during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 25.3N 66.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 26.1N 67.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 27.7N 67.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 29.7N 68.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 32.1N 67.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 35.0N 67.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 38.0N 66.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 44.0N 66.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 18/0000Z 48.5N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 12 2023 ...LARGE LEE LUMBERING NORTHWESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.3N 66.7W ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. Interests in the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Lee. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 66.7 West. Lee is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). Lee is forecast to turn toward the north on Thursday and increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Lee is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, however Lee is likely to remain a large and dangerous hurricane for the next couple of days. Lee is a very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). Saildrone 1036, located about 75 miles (120 km) northwest of Lee's center, recently reported a wind gust to 88 mph (141 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in Bermuda starting late Wednesday or early Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents are affecting portions of the southeastern U.S. coast, and these conditions are forecast to spread northward along much of the U.S. East Coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Lee may produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, 25 to 50 millimeters, across Bermuda Thursday into early Friday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch GFS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=eus&pkg=mslp_pcpn Euro: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=eus&pkg=mslp_pcpn GFS Ensemble: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=eus&pkg=lowlocs Euro Ensemble: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps®ion=eus&pkg=lowlocs Euro remains more west of the GFS. It's a large storm, so impacts will be felt over a wide area. In either model, impacts are felt in New England and parts of Canada. Once the storm speeds up, it's going to really pick up speed. People should be preparing for a storm in these areas since as early as Friday evening parts of the area might begin to get some of the tropical storm force winds. Or sooner if the arrival times of winds product at the NHC is also not configured for such a large storm, I don't know. Refer to local NWS offices. Map of NWS offices: https://www.weather.gov/srh/nwsoffices The wind will topple a lot of trees. Rainfall could be a serious threat. There has already been flooding in areas west of Boston: https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/heres-how-much-rain-fell-in-and-around-leominster/3133544/ 9.5 inches in one spot in Worcester County, Massachusetts. Some areas are already saturated obviously. Today's blog post from Jeff Masters and Bob Henson cover the storm, including the threat of heavy rains: https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/09/hurricane-lee-grows-in-size-maintaining-its-intensity/ I like the tweet they included there of the impacts of Franklin and Idalia on SSTs: I guess it's better they are cooler so a stronger storm, in terms of wind speed, doesn't get as far north. But then again, and I don't know how this works, but that might be a contributing factor as to why the storm will expand in size further, which is a negative, as it impacts more people. Storm specific models: https://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2023&storm=13 Recon: https://hurricanecity.com/recon/ |