TC Formation Alert from JTWC
Posted by JAC on 6/18/2009, 6:51 am
 WTPN21 PHNC 172300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0N 107.7W TO 20.4N 109.4W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 171800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 107.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.1N 107.8W, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES MISSED THE LLCC BUT WERE ABLE TO SHOW 20- KNOT WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A 17/1800Z SHIP OBSERVATION FROM THE APL AUSTRALIA LOCATED 150 NM TO THE NORTH- NORTHEAST ALSO REPORTED 20-KNOT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF A LOW-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND IS UNDER MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE ANALYSIS ALSO DEPICTS POINT-SOURCE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT GIVING THE SYSTEM SOME RADIAL EXHAUST THOUGH A CHANNEL TO POLEWARD OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE CUT OFF BY AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 182300Z.// |
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In this thread:
CMC spins up 92E for a Mexico Landfall (Code Red) - JAC, 6/16/2009, 1:44 pm
- Strong eyewall building, ADT shows a TS - JAC, 6/19/2009, 7:50 am
- Dry as a bone - JAC, 6/18/2009, 9:23 pm
- T2.0 and not a TD yet? - JAC, 6/18/2009, 9:35 am
- Didn't take long - first EPAC TD of the Season - JAC, 6/18/2009, 9:41 am
- FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON FORMS - JAC, 6/18/2009, 11:01 am
- Re: FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON FORMS - JAC, 6/18/2009, 1:12 pm
- FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON FORMS - JAC, 6/18/2009, 11:01 am
- Didn't take long - first EPAC TD of the Season - JAC, 6/18/2009, 9:41 am
- Landfall in about 36 hours - JAC, 6/18/2009, 7:30 am
- LLC getting organized - JAC, 6/17/2009, 4:18 pm
- HWRF Shows TS/Hurricane by Baja in 48hrs - Target, 6/17/2009, 10:31 pm
- This shows a solid Cat2 - JAC, 6/17/2009, 11:31 pm
- HWRF Shows TS/Hurricane by Baja in 48hrs - Target, 6/17/2009, 10:31 pm
- Looks healthy - JAC, 6/17/2009, 10:00 am
- What is a "Code Red"? - Ben, 6/17/2009, 8:58 am
- Re: What is a "Code Red"? - JAC, 6/17/2009, 9:50 am
- Another Eastern Pacific Low With Tropical Possibilities - JAC, 6/17/2009, 8:40 am
- thanks jac, i got it lol code red - BobbiStorm, 6/16/2009, 9:00 pm
- GFS slowly consolidates this for the next week - JAC, 6/16/2009, 8:27 pm
- Re: CMC spins up 92E for a Mexico Landfall (Code Red) - Will_TX, 6/16/2009, 3:31 pm
- Re: CMC spins up 92E for a Mexico Landfall (Code Red) - JAC, 6/16/2009, 5:47 pm
- Re: CMC spins up 92E for a Mexico Landfall (Code Red) - Will_TX, 6/18/2009, 3:30 pm
- Re: CMC spins up 92E for a Mexico Landfall (Code Red) - JAC, 6/18/2009, 3:41 pm
- Re: CMC spins up 92E for a Mexico Landfall (Code Red) - JAC, 6/18/2009, 3:47 pm
- Re: CMC spins up 92E for a Mexico Landfall (Code Red) - JAC, 6/18/2009, 3:41 pm
- Latest Guidance - JAC, 6/17/2009, 8:09 am
- Re: CMC spins up 92E for a Mexico Landfall (Code Red) - Will_TX, 6/18/2009, 3:30 pm
- Re: CMC spins up 92E for a Mexico Landfall (Code Red) - JAC, 6/16/2009, 5:47 pm
- Travelling over hot water - JAC, 6/16/2009, 1:55 pm
- Current Conditions - JAC, 6/16/2009, 1:51 pm
- 85GHz and Rain-Rate show intense core forming - JAC, 6/16/2009, 2:38 pm
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