FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON FORMS
Posted by JAC on 6/18/2009, 11:01 am
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER  1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  EP012009
800 AM PDT THU JUN 18 2009

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON FORMS...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO...

AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM
TOPOLOBAMPO SOUTHWARD TO EL ROBLITO AND FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS.  A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST OR ABOUT
370 MILES...595 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY.
ON THIS TRACK...THE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE
REACHING THE COAST.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.2N 108.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB





TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  EP012009
800 AM PDT THU JUN 18 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO HAS ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE
DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE FIRST OF THE 2009 EAST
PACIFIC SEASON.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/08.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN...SHOWING A MID-TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.  THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LOW WILL STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND
TOWARD THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE
LEFT AND THE ECMWF ON THE RIGHT...WHICH SHOWS THE BEST DEPICTION OF
THE SYSTEM IN ITS FIELDS.

DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 1200 UTC WERE 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE
FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT
THE CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT BASED ON THE LIMITED
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO
LANDFALL...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE 0000 UTC RUN OF THE GFDL.
ADDITIONALLY...THE INTENSITY PROBABILITY PRODUCT SHOWS THAT THERE IS
A 33 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE CYCLONE BEING A TROPICAL STORM BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.  AFTER LANDFALL...THE CYCLONE WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.

THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME FOR A PORTION OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO AND LAS ISLAS MARIAS.  RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPRESSION MAY IMPACT THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF THE WATCH
AREA WELL BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      18/1500Z 18.2N 108.5W    25 KT
12HR VT    19/0000Z 19.8N 108.5W    25 KT
24HR VT    19/1200Z 21.5N 108.0W    30 KT
36HR VT    20/0000Z 23.1N 107.5W    35 KT
48HR VT    20/1200Z 24.9N 107.0W    25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT    21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

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In this thread:
CMC spins up 92E for a Mexico Landfall (Code Red) - JAC, 6/16/2009, 1:44 pm
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