SOI index
Posted by Mike_Doran on 7/13/2009, 9:12 am
1-Jul-2009     1015.85   1012.85     12.62     -2.51     -0.15
  2-Jul-2009     1014.74   1012.10     10.40     -1.96     -0.12
  3-Jul-2009     1014.03   1012.60      2.95     -1.70     -0.10
  4-Jul-2009     1014.95   1013.70      1.85     -1.46     -0.12
  5-Jul-2009     1015.45   1013.20      8.00     -1.12     -0.17
  6-Jul-2009     1014.98   1012.90      6.96     -0.63     -0.17
  7-Jul-2009     1014.19   1012.40      5.17     -0.16     -0.14
  8-Jul-2009     1014.00   1012.75      1.85     -0.02     -0.30
  9-Jul-2009     1012.94   1012.65     -4.06      0.48     -0.68
  10-Jul-2009    1013.29   1012.15      1.17      1.73     -0.86
  11-Jul-2009    1013.76   1011.15     10.22      3.72     -0.90
  12-Jul-2009    1014.63   1010.75     18.04      5.54     -0.96
  13-Jul-2009    1015.34   1011.25     19.33      6.84     -1.03


30 day running is positive again.  Rising over past few days.  The region around this area of development benefits from a rising SOI index, despite the solar conditions becoming less favorable.  This should result in some moisture flowing into the CONUS and then a reset eventually of the Pacific high after these storms are done and then a chance for something in the Atlantic, in my view.  But it's still a bit early--once August comes. 

The wild cards continue to be over the Arctic and sun spot cycle in terms of long term thinking and for that reason I continue to have low confidence in what I am saying.  Also I have to wonder what the ENSO models are doing with this rising SOI.  This much I will say.  If a tropical storm exists in the Pacific, it is very difficult for electron precip over the Americas to both support a big walker circulation AND a tropical storm, in terms of organization.  Again, we are talking about an event that occurs more down the road in the late fall and winter, and the SSTs are indeed rising, but unless and until the electrics part of the phenomenon is appreciated, the models are going to lay eggs.
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Next one behind Carlos could be bigger - JAC, 7/11/2009, 5:42 pm
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