TS Molave (Isang/07W)
Posted by JAC on 7/16/2009, 10:31 am


It is cutting it close for Luzon.

Core temp looks great and over warm water.

But no anti-cyclone overhead and stuck in the ITCZ.

It is seeing about 20-knots shear; so, may not intensify too much.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/4kmsrbdc_loop.asp?storm_identifier=WP072009&starting_image=2009WP07_4KMSRBDC_200907150630.jpg













WDPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (SEVEN) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND HAS REMAINED AT
35 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE. OVER THE PAST 03 HOURS THERE HAS BEEN A RADIAL
EXPANSION OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC, WHICH IS BEGINNING TO
TAKE ON A MORE ORGANIZED STRUCTURE. HOWEVER, CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
PERSIST PREDOMINANTLY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM. OUTFLOW
TO THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT), EAST OF TS 07W,
HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AS THE TUTT HAS ELONGATED NORTH
TO SOUTH HINDERING INFLOW. TS 07W IS TRACKING ALONG THE  SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE RIDGING INTO CHINA FROM
THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
    A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
    B. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO
CHINA AS DESCRIBED IN PARA 2.A. THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN AS A
TROPICAL STORM AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE LUZON STRAIT INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA AND WILL BE SUSTAINED BY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. MODEL
AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE NOGAPS TRACKER WHICH IS OPTING FOR A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK TO
THE SOUTH OF TAIWAN STARTING BY TAU 24. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL
START TO ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND WILL START TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL
AROUND TAU 60 WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 72.
FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//
NNNN

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West Pacific - hanna, 7/16/2009, 10:02 am
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