Molave forecast upgraded to Cat1, Heading to Hong Kong
Posted by JAC on 7/17/2009, 9:13 am
... however forecast to weaken to a TS by landfall.






170900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 122.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TS 07W CONTINUES TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE,
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF TS 07W. MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS QUICKLY BECOME
ORGANIZED WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING DEVELOPING TOWARD THE LLCC. AS
TS 07W TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF LUZON, THE INFLOW OF RELATIVELY DRIER
AIR (APPARENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS) HAS LED TO A
DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. HOWEVER,
THIS HAS BEEN OFFSET BY INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS STILL INDICATES STRONG EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW IS PRESENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, AND THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) PRODUCTS INDICATE
THERE IS A LARGE REGION OF DEEP, WARM WATER BETWEEN LUZON AND TAIWAN
HELPING TO FUEL A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAPID DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, THE
OHC WILL DECREASE AS TS 07W TRACKS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
AROUND TAU 36 AND QUICKLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE, WITH FULL DISSIPATION
BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 14 FEET.



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West Pacific - hanna, 7/16/2009, 10:02 am
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