I'll try not to scream
Posted by Mike_Doran on 7/20/2009, 8:20 pm
but it doesn't mean the theatre isn't burning.  Remain calm--but run for you lives.

As I stated clearly in March when I do my yearly electrics forecast, I had very low confidence in this season, the least I have ever had, given the dichotomy between what we saw in 1914 and human activity and changes like El Cajan and the fact that electrics as a forcing from CO2 expresses itself when lightning is greatest, which is the late summer and fall, exactly, as we are all observing, when the Arctic ice sheet is melting.  It's on the exact track right now as I called it--melting at this time.  As you can imagine, I am talking about all the way from record low to average for what the season would do and, therefore,  I almost can't go wrong!  At least I can explain what it is that might be suppressing things and why it can get active and what the concern should be.

BTW, if a ice free arctic produces non linear change in convection, no one will worry about tropical storms.  It will be Day After Tomorrow migrations to Mexico.
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Some electrics tid bits - Mike_Doran, 7/19/2009, 10:34 pm
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