Re: is it my dumb self but doesn't it look like its drifting wsw a little bit
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/12/2009, 6:17 pm
The problem is finding the center. The NHC has had problems with that.

14.4N (11th, 6AM)
14.6N (11th, 11AM)
14.6N (11th, 5PM)
14.8N (11th, 11PM)
14.6N (12th, 5AM)
14.3N (12th, 11AM)
14.3N (12th, 5PM)

At first it seemed the ball of convection was displaced from the center. Then it seemed to line up more earlier today. It seemed like the convection was getting over where I think the center was and that might explain some of that southern movement. Now though, I'm not sure what is happening. I'm not sure if it has moved south some or maybe there has been a slight reformation and that could explain some of the stall in development. (It seems like there must be more than dry air and a little bit of shear.) The center looks to me to be around 13.8N. But, I have no clue. (Staring at loops trying to find centers in poorly formed cyclones can lead to insanity.) I need a recent Quikscat pass but as usual there is nothing recent.
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