Fred could make a comeback
Posted by
Jake on 9/19/2009, 1:53 am
This system has traversed the Atlantic during the last several days fighting constant shear and dry air. A vigorous LLC has remained in tacked and this will be the key element for regeneration as Fred's remnants approach an area of increasing SST's, high OHC and lighter shear values of 5kts or less, in about 12-24hrs.
An upper level high is currently centered over western cuba and extends NEward through 70N. This ridge is another key element in Fred's convective firing as it has lessened shear values across the Bahamas to 70N. Unlike the last several days convection should be able to remain closer to the 925mb-700mb vortex. In addition, to light shear and warm SST's. A vigorous vortex of 925mb-700mb must be present in order for a tropical cyclone to be able to trigger convection, which in turn starts the organizational process.
I will keep an eye today on the tight circulation and see how the convective bursts react to the lessening of the northerly shear by early evening. It is the only game in town and is close to home. |
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Fred could make a comeback - Jake, 9/19/2009, 1:53 am Post A Reply
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