Re: Fred could make a comeback
Posted by Jake on 9/19/2009, 11:34 am
My thinking was convection would fire beyond 70W. However, the disturbance has slowed and the ULL you mentioned continues to shear Fred from the north. Still is the only thing close that has any chance of cyclone formation. With this said, waters are warm head and shear has weakened across the Bahamas. Let's see how convection holds later this evening and into tomorrow around the circulation.

Finally, looks to me that if we are to get any kind of strike from the E or SE beyond this period on the eastern seaboard it will come from Fred. As I see nothing else coming across the Atlantic the rest of the year, unless it heads way south through the Caribbean. And as I stated in a previous thread, if any hurricane were to strike the US, it will come north out of the Western Caribbean.  
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Fred could make a comeback - Jake, 9/19/2009, 1:53 am
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