Tampa NWS Discussion
Posted by JAC on 11/5/2009, 2:59 pm
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
124 PM EST THU NOV 5 2009


THE FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME IS ABOUT
AS UNCLEAR AS IT COULD POSSIBLY GET. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS IDA AS A TROPICAL STORM IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS POSITION AT THAT TIME...WHICH LENDS SOME
CREDIBILITY TO THE GFS FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME. THE GFS DECOUPLES
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE GULF...WITH SOME MOISTURE AND ENERGY
ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER WEAKENS AND DRIFTS AWAY TO THE SOUTHWEST. IT NEEDS
TO BE STATED THAT THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE OFTEN OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS SINCE THERE IS NO WAY OF KNOWING HOW MUCH OF IDA WILL
RE-EMERGE OVER THE GULF. FOR NOW...WILL JUST KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS
IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

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Hurricane Ida - jimw, 11/5/2009, 7:28 am
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