TC Laurence - Round 2
Posted by JAC on 12/19/2009, 6:37 pm
191500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 121.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (LAURENCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. LAURENCE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
TRACK WEST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN COASTLINE OF WESTERN
AUSTRALIA UNDER THE PREDOMINATE INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE INTENSITY HAS REMAINED NEAR 35 KNOTS, WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH OBSERVATIONS FROM NEARBY BROOME AND RECENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE TC WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SEAWARD (AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCES OF LAND) WHERE IT WILL QUICKLY
INTENSIFY DUE TO LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN EXCESS OF 30 DEGREES CELSIUS, AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW MECHANISMS
ALOFT. THE TC WILL TURN SOUTH AROUND TAU 36 IN RESPONSE
TO A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, AND WILL MAKE
LANDFALL TO THE EAST OF PORT HEDLAND AFTER TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL
DISSIPATE OVER LAND SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72. IN GENERAL, ALL AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A TURN TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48
AND DISSIPATION OVER LAND THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z AND 201500Z.//
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TC Laurence - Round 2 - JAC, 12/19/2009, 6:37 pm
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