Re: RI Starting Up, Raw T
Posted by JAC on 12/20/2009, 9:29 am




REMARKS:
Severe TC Laurence has shown some signs of intenisfication in the last few hours
with an improved eye structure on Broome and Port Hedland radars, on microwave
imagery [SSMIS at 1104UTC], and finally a ragged eye emerging on conventional IR
imagery at 10:30UTC. This is possibly heralding a new period of intensification
after appearing to plateau in the previous 12 hours with a partial eye
persisting. Time averaged Dvorak EIR gives DT=5.0 [Eye: Black surround less 0.5
elongated eye] but FT/CI held at 4.5 according to Pattern T, however this may be
revised higher on subsequent images.

The environment remains conducive for further development and intensification to
Category 4 [90 knot max winds] is forecast prior to landfall, but could be
higher if the eye consolidates further.

Laurence has tracked on a steady southwest path with a weak mid-level ridge to
the south that is likely to erode overnight. Motion should slow and become more
southerly towards the coast on Monday. The likelihood of a severe cyclone impact
along Eighty Mile Beach remains very high, although the crossing time is
difficult to pinpoint given the slow movement. In the longer term the system is
expected to be caught in an upper westerly flow with a short wave feature that
comes through on Tuesday., causing the system to accelarate across the continent
on Wednesday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
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TC Laurence - Round 2 - JAC, 12/19/2009, 6:37 pm
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