Landfall - strong Cat 4
Posted by JAC on 12/21/2009, 7:11 am












Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence crossed the east Pilbara coast at 5pm near
Wallal. VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 285 kilometres per hour are being
experienced near the cyclone centre, and will extend inland during the evening.
People in the area are specifically warned of the DANGEROUS STORM TIDE. Tides
are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING
WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with wind gusts to 150 kilometres per hour are expected to
extend inland overnight and during Tuesday, possibly reaching as far inland as
Telfer. GALES with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may be occurring along
other parts of the coast between Bidyadanga and south towards Port Hedland and
will extend well inland during Tuesday and Wednesday, reaching the vicinity of
Giles and Warburton by Wednesday afternoon or evening.

Heavy rainfall is falling between De Grey and Mandora and extends inland with
rainfall totals in excess of 300 mm likely near the track including the far
eastern parts of the De Grey river catchment. Falls may exceed 100 mm across
remaining parts of the De Grey River catchment. Heavy rainfall is expected to
extend into the far inland eastern Pilbara and Interior on Tuesday and
Wednesday.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises as a precautionary measure the following
community alerts:
RED ALERT: People in or near communities from Sandfire to Pardoo and inland to
Yarrie and Marble Bar need to go to shelter immediately.
YELLOW ALERT: People in or near Nullagine and Telfer need to take action and get
ready to shelter from a cyclone.
BLUE ALERT: People in or near communities from De Grey to Port Hedland and
inland to Marble Bar, Nullagine and Telfer need to prepare for cyclonic weather
and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio,
spare batteries, food and water.
ALL CLEAR: People in or near Bidyadanga are advised that the wind dangers have
passed and you should proceed with caution
Communities in the southwest Kimberley and eastern Pilbara should listen for the
next advice.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence at 5:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 19.7 degrees South 120.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 9 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 285 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 5
.Central pressure......... 925 hectoPascals

REMARKS:
Severe TC Laurence has continued to intensify as it approaches the coast. Dvorak
EIR gives DT 7.0 on recent images with CMG surround E number = 6.5, CDG/OW eye
correction on a circular eye gives +0.  ADT is also producing a CI of 7.0.
However FT/CI is held at 6.5 given FT constraints. TC Laurence will cross the
coast during the next 4 hours.  

Motion should continue on a generally southerly track before taking a more
southeast track tomorrow and begin accelerating across the continent as it
becomes caught up in a short wave feature. Model guidance indicates that despite
increasing shear from 500-200 the low to mid levels will remain coherent and
together with the rapid translation this is likely to result in a system capable
of producing severe wind gusts and significant rain a long way across the
continent.


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TC Laurence - Round 2 - JAC, 12/19/2009, 6:37 pm
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