Snow Storm for N. New England this weekend
Posted by JAC on 1/1/2010, 12:42 pm
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
320 AM EST FRI JAN 01 2010

VALID 12Z FRI JAN 01 2010 - 00Z SUN JAN 03 2010

THE EASTERN COAST OF THE COUNTRY WILL LIKELY BE GETTING A BIT
BLUSTERY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE IN
THE NORTHEAST. A SURFACE LOW WILL INTENSIFY VERY RAPIDLY WELL OFF
THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND IN
DOING SO...WILL LIKELY ROTATE BACK AROUND TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST LATE SATURDAY. A COMBINATION OF FEATURES SHOULD SUPPORT A
REGION OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY...AND THIS REGION WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED AS THE
LOW APPROACHES ON SATURDAY. THIS FLOW OF MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE
WELL-ESTABLISHED COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION COULD CREATE A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM FOR MUCH OF MAINE AND PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH THE WORST OF THE STORM LATE SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO STALL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
PLEASE REFER TO HPC WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON THIS EVENT.


ACROSS THE PLAINS...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SEEP DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
STATES...BRINGING COLD AIR WITH IT. THIS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ACT TO CAUSE STRONG...BLUSTERY WINDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE DEVELOPING
WINTER STORM WILL ONLY TIGHTEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THIS STRONG
HIGH PROGRESSES SOUTH AND EASTWARD...PARTS OF THE COUNTRY BETWEEN
THE ROCKIES AND THE CYCLONE OFF THE COAST LOOK LIKELY TO BE LOCKED
UNDER A CONTINUED REGIME OF COLDER-THAN-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


...NORTHEAST...
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA THAT THE SFC LOW
WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ON DAY TWO AS THE REX BLOCK IN PLACE PLACES
THE LOW SOUTH OF A PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER EASTERN
CANADA.  STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE JET
WRAPPING AROUND THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL JETS WILL BE STRONG AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS INTO THE MID 1960S MB.
A LOW TO MDT RISK OF A FOOT OF SNOW IS INDICATED FOR THE DAY 2 PD
ACRS ERN MAINE WHERE DEVELOPING ATLC INFLOW AND LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/DEFORMATION COINCIDE.
ON DAY THREE...THE CYCLONE IS FCST TO TURN EAST AND DEPART FROM
THE REGION...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE./INTENSITY.

THE 0Z NAM/0Z GFS/21Z SREF MEAN/00Z GEFS MEAN/00Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF
ALL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A FOOT OF SNOW ON DAY TWO.  THE CANADIAN
GEM GLOBAL WAS AN OUTLIER WITH THE CYCLONE FURTHER OFFSHORE AND
RESULTANT LIGHTER AMOUNTS.  MANUAL PROGS BLENDED THE CONSENSUS
CLUSTER.  ON DAY THREE...CYCLONIC FLOW COMING INTO THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS/GREEN/WHITE MOUNTAINS WILL AID ASCENT IN PRODUCING
SNOW.  LOWER ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF THESE MOUNTAINS WOULD BE ON THE
DOWNSLOPE SIDE...WITH LOWER SNOWFALLS EXPECTED IN THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE SOUTH OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.






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Can we talk Snow Cane? - BobbiStorm, 1/1/2010, 11:40 am
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