Re: Possible Major eastcoast snowstorm(BLIZZARD?)
Posted by Fred on 2/8/2010, 7:47 am
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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WEAKENING HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT
AND THEN OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT AS WELL WITH
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY TUE.
NW WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF TUESDAY. TEMPS MODERATE IN A LARGE SCALE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
WITH HIGHS ON TUE IN THE MID 30S.

ALL ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING TOWARD THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VLY EARLY
TUE WILL BARREL EASTWARD SENDING HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE EAST LATE
IN THE DAY WITH SUBSEQUENT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IT IS THIS LOW THAT UNDERGOES MAJOR
INTENSIFICATION FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...DROPPING NEARLY
30 MB AS THE LOW TRACKS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO JUST EAST OF
MONTAUK POINT. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CLUSTERING
OF LOWS NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE BENCHMARK 40N...70W. SFC PRES
970-975 MB...WITH THE 00Z GLOBAL GEM A 966 MB. THE ECMWF IS
FARTHEST WEST...SOUTH OF MONTAUK POINT BY 70 NM.

THESE TRACKS PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN THE VICINITY OF STRONG
FRONTOGENTIC FORCING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW CENTER.
MODEL CONSENSUS PRODUCES 1-1.5 INCHES OF LIQUID ACROSS THE AREA.
HPC WWD DESK PLACES THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW FROM NRN NJ EASTWARD
ACROSS LI (12-20 INCHES). RIGHT NOW...TOOK A SLIGHTLY MORE
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH 10 TO 15 INCHES FORECAST. SOME MIXING
AND WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY KEEP RATIOS SLIGHTLY LOWER
ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT.

CONTEMPLATED THE ISSUANCE OF A WATCH AT THIS TIME WITH ADJACENT
OFFICES TO THE WEST ALREADY PUTTING THEM UP. HOWEVER...WARNING
CRITERIA LIKELY TO NOT BE MET UNTIL WED AFT...STILL BEYOND 48H.
SHOULD THE 12Z GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...THE ISSUANCE
OF A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ALL BUT INEVITABLE. AS ALWAYS...THE
TRACK OF THE LOW BEARS CLOSE WATCHING IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. AS WE
SAW FROM THE HISTORIC STORM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS PAST
WEEKEND...IT ONLY TAKES 10 TO 20 MILES TO MAKE A WORLD OF DIFFERENCE.

FOR NOW...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE TUE WITH SNOW DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND BECOMING HEAVY WED MORNING. THE MORNING COMMUTE IS
LIKELY TO BE DIFFICULT.
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Possible Major eastcoast snowstorm(BLIZZARD?) - Fred, 2/7/2010, 1:36 pm
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