Re: Possible Major eastcoast snowstorm(BLIZZARD?)
Posted by Fred on 2/8/2010, 7:49 am
Here's latest NCEP Heavy Snow discussion:

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
351 AM EST MON FEB 08 2010

VALID 12Z MON FEB 08 2010 - 12Z THU FEB 11 2010

DAY 1...

MID/UPPER MS VALLEY TO OH VALLEY...
ENERGY WITHIN THE ACTIVE SRN JET WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
AND PHASE WITH A STRONG VORTEX DROPPING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS.
CRITICAL TEMPS ON THE GFS/ECMWF SUPPORT AN AREA OF HVY SNOW
CENTERED FROM NRN AR TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS THE UPPER PATTERN
CONSOLIDATES TODAY. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SHOULD ALIGN FROM CNTRL AR
TO WRN TN WITH A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE
TRANSITION ZONE. A SECONDARY MAXIMUM OF HVY SNOW IS INDICATED
ACROSS IOWA AND SRN MN ALONG A LOW LEVEL TROUGH AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM CROSSES TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA. THE BATCH OF SNOW WILL
BE PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREAS
TONIGHT WITHIN THE BROAD DOWNSTREAM UPPER DIVERGENT PATTERN.

DAYS 2/3...

MID ATLC AND NORTHEAST...
ANOTHER MAJOR SNOWSTORM IS FCST TO DEVELOP AS THE POTENT MIDWEST
CLOSED LOW PULLS EAST...SPARKING RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID
ATLC COAST. SNOW WILL BE SPREADING NEWD INTO THE MID ATLC ON TUES
AS THE PHASED UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...AND A COASTAL LOW BEGINS
TO FORM OVER THE CAROLINAS. MODELS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT
OVERALL...WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP ACROSS THE NRN MID
ATLC REGION ON WEDS. STRONG UVV FROM THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER
LOW SHOULD EXTEND FROM PA/MD TO NJ AND EVENTUALLY SRN NEW ENG.
FAVORED THE GENERALLY SIMILAR GFS/ECMWF SOLNS IN REGARD TO THE
AXIS OF HVY SNOW. THE CMC MODEL REMAINS SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE....WHILE THE UKMET EXTENDS THE HEAVIER PCPN FARTHER
NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS. EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS DURING WEDS NORTH AND WEST OF THE INTENSE SFC
LOW...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR 1 FOOT PLUS AMTS FROM ERN PA AND NJ TO
PARTS OF SRN NEW ENG.

MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...
STRONG UPPER FORCING IS FCST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE DEEP CLOSED
LOW PULLING EAST FROM IOWA. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO FAVOR
THE HVST SNOW ACROSS THE NRN PART OF IL/IN/OH AND THE SRN HALF OF
LOWER MI WHERE 4 TO 8 INCH AMTS SHOULD BE COMMON. LOCALLY HEAVIER
TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE COMMA HEAD MOISTURE PERSISTS THE
LONGEST WHICH IS MOST LIKELY INVOF SRN LOWER MI. A DRY SLOT
SHOULD REDUCE AMTS TOWARD THE OH RIVER...BUT GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A
BATCH OF SNOW ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE CIRC WILL WRAP BACK INTO SRN
OH AND ERN KY EARLY WEDS.
49
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Possible Major eastcoast snowstorm(BLIZZARD?) - Fred, 2/7/2010, 1:36 pm
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