Friday's Outlook - TX
Posted by JAC on 3/30/2010, 7:01 am



DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0354 AM CDT TUE MAR 30 2010
 
  VALID 021200Z - 071200Z
 
  ...DISCUSSION...
  STG WRN TROUGHING IS EXPECTED FROM WY-NM TO NWRN MEX BY START OF
  DAY-4/2ND-3RD...WITH CONSENSUS AMONG BOTH ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL
  MODELS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL TURN NEWD LATE DAY-4 AND INTO
  DAY-5/3RD-4TH...REACHING VICINITY LS BY END OF DAY-5.  SFC CYCLONE
  LIKEWISE SHOULD EJECT NEWD FROM SRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...AS
  COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD/SEWD OVER MID-UPPER MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS.
  UKMET APPEARS TO BE LESS-RELIABLE FAST OUTLIER COMPARED TO
  ECMWF/SPECTRAL AND MOST MREF MEMBERS.  FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN ACROSS S
  TX DAYS 5-6/3RD-5TH AS UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WELL-REMOVED.  
 
  GREATEST SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DAY-4 INVOF FRONT...BEGINNING
  EARLY IN PERIOD OVER WRN PORTIONS SRN PLAINS...WHEN GEOMETRY OF MASS
  FIELDS...MAX AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE TO THIS SYSTEM...AND PROBABLE
  ALIGNMENT OF FRONT SUGGEST LIKELIHOOD OF DOMINANT LINEAR
  ORGANIZATION.  DEEP-LAYER SHEAR CERTAINLY COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
  SUPPORT SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY NEAR SRN PORTION OF CONVECTIVE ZONE
  OVER TX...WHERE CAPPING WILL BE STRONGER DUE TO ANTECEDENT ELEVATED
  MIXED LAYER.  ACTUAL CORRIDOR OF POTENTIAL SVR THREAT IS LONGER THAN
  30% AREA HERE...WHICH INSTEAD REPRESENTS BEST ESTIMATE OF
  JUXTAPOSITION OF MOVING FRONTAL ZONE...RICHEST RETURNING MOISTURE
  AND STG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
 
  ..EDWARDS.. 03/30/2010
35
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May see a big system move across Conus around first weekend in April - JAC, 3/26/2010, 7:27 am
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