Dallas under the gun
Posted by JAC on 4/2/2010, 9:23 am


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0236
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0759 AM CDT FRI APR 02 2010
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...NE TX
 
  CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
 
  VALID 021259Z - 021430Z
 
  HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS
  INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NE TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW
  ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION DEPENDING ON HOW THE
  SITUATION UNFOLDS THIS MORNING.
 
  THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY INITIATING WEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
  METROPLEX ALONG A COLD FRONT AND ON THE WRN EDGE OF A CORRIDOR OF
  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS NE TX ARE STEADILY
  INCREASING AND SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S F AHEAD OF THE STORMS OVER
  THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
  AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. IN
  ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN
  EAST TX. MODEL FORECASTS MOVE THE LOW-LEVEL JET NNEWD ACROSS NE TX
  THIS MORNING SUGGESTING LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
  A WIND DAMAGE THREAT ESPECIALLY IF A LINE CAN ORGANIZE. STEEP
  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED
  LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CORES.
 
  ..BROYLES.. 04/02/2010
 
 
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May see a big system move across Conus around first weekend in April - JAC, 3/26/2010, 7:27 am
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