Convective Initiation could start in about 1 hour. 100-knot UL Jet, 95-knots at 500mb
Posted by JAC on 5/10/2010, 2:28 pm


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0507
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1246 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...SRN OK
 
  CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
 
  VALID 101746Z - 101945Z
 
  SIGNS FOR STORM INITIATION ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED.  ONCE
  ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY...WITH AN INCREASING RISK
  FOR TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A TORNADO WATCH WILL
  BE REQUIRED...PERHAPS WITHIN THE HOUR.
 
  AS A 90+ KT CYCLONIC...WESTERLY...500 MB JET STREAK CONTINUES TO
  NOSE EASTWARD THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT FEW
  HOURS...AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENING/MIXING PROGRESSES TO THE WEST
  OF THE DRY LINE...DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM APPEARS LIKELY TO
  SUPPORT A RAPID DRY LINE SURGE ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
  INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.  MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTIVE THAT STRONGEST
  LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME
  FOCUSED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL JET AXIS...ACROSS
  NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  GIVEN
  THIS FORCING...COUPLED WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION AS LOW/MID-LEVEL
  LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND LOWER/MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECT INTO
  THE REGION...CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
  SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
  SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 19-21Z.
 
  ALTHOUGH 50+ KT 850 MB FLOW WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT VEERED...TO A MORE
  SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT...SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW MAY REMAIN
  BACKED...AT A SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY COMPONENT... WITHIN A BROAD
  RETREATING WARM FRONTAL ZONE.  THIS PROBABLY WILL MAINTAIN LARGE
  CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE... SUPPORTIVE OF
  STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOSCYCLONES AND TORNADOES.  SOME UNCERTAINTY
  EXISTS CONCERNING HOW QUICKLY STORMS WILL BECOME TORNADIC.  BUT
  TORNADO POTENTIAL CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKELY TO INCREASE PRIOR TO
  00Z...AS RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH OF THE
  RED RIVER TOWARD THE SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS/ NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
  AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE... VERY LARGE HAIL AND
  LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST VIGOROUS
  STORMS.
 
  ..KERR.. 05/10/2010









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Kansas, Oklahoma & Arkansas Under-the-Gun - JAC, 5/10/2010, 12:46 pm
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